Aaron Rodgers Futures Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for 2022 NFL Season: Place Your MVP Bets Elsewhere

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

Aaron Rodgers enters the twilight of his career with a massive change at wide receiver, with superstar Davante Adams being traded to the Raiders in the offseason.

Looking at Adams’ stats with Rodgers is almost comical, and really shows how productive the two were in Green Bay together. Adams has gone over 100 receptions in three of four the past years, while going over 1300 yards in those three seasons as well. The only year Adams missed in that stretch was an injury-shortened 2019 where he only played in 12 games.

The past two seasons alone he has caught a combined 29 touchdowns. So, now we get to see just how good Rodgers and this Packers team can be without Adams. Let’s take a look at what the betting markets think of Rodgers.

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Aaron Rodgers Regular-Season Total Passing Yards: Over/Under 3950.5

This stat being below 4000 is interesting to me. Rodgers has started for Green Bay for 14 years now. If you take away the two years in which he started fewer than ten games due to injury, he has gone over 4000 yards passing ten times, only missing this prop in two of 12 years in which he started the full season.

Rodgers has put up extremely gaudy stats in his career (duh), so the total being set this low speaks volumes to what the betting markets think of him this year without Adams.

For reference, for him to go over 3950.5 yards he would need to average roughly 233 passing yards a game. For his entire career, the lowest passing yards per game he’s averaged is 238.8. Keep in mind that the NFL recently added a 17th game to the season, so even in the two seasons he went under the total yardage of 3950.5, he would have hit if he had played a 17th game with his averages.

So, if you are betting this under you are essentially betting for Rodgers to have his statistically worst season of his career.

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Since 2019, the Packers have played in seven games without Adams. The Packers are 7-0 in those games, with Rodgers averaging over 292 passing yards.

So, even in a limited sample size we have of Rodgers life without Adams, he is still trending above this number.

With that said, there are plenty of reasons to argue that Rodgers will, in fact, go under this total. The Adams argument is obvious, but what is more concerning for the Packers is that they did nothing substantial to replace him.

They signed Sammy Watkins, who was a once highly-touted prospect but has disappointed the entirety of his career. He has been in the league since 2014, but has gone under 500 receiving yards the past two years, and hasn’t had above 700 since 2015.

They also drafted Christian Watson in the second-round of this past NFL draft in hopes to replace some of Adams’ production, but Watson never had more than 801 receiving yards in a season in college. Generally, production translates the most from college to the NFL specifically for receivers, so while Watson is incredibly talented, he is also risky and shouldn’t be relied upon his rookie year.

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The Packers also might have some trouble along the offensive line. Both starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins entered camp nursing injuries. Both have claimed to be ready for week one, but that is still a potential risk.

Another point in favor of this under is the fact that the Packers project to have a significantly upgraded rushing attack and defense than we are used to seeing in Rodgers career. Rodgers is used to throwing 500+ times a season, but with the Packers projected stout defense and running-game that might not be necessary.

At running back they have a two-headed monster in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Both are young, ascending football players. Defensively, advanced stats project them to have the best secondary in the entire NFL, and the second-best defense overall.

Lastly, Rodgers is going against the seventh-hardest schedule for opposing quarterbacks.

Taking everything into account, the 17th game being added to the season is the deciding factor here. Even in Rodgers worst season back in 2015 where he had poor weapons and the entire Packers offense just felt gross, he still projected over this number in a 17 start season.

We’ve seen enough from a passing yards standpoint that Rodgers will still be able to get plenty of yards through the air even without Adams in town.

So, I lean towards this total going over as well.

Rodgers Total Passing Yards Betting Pick: Over 3950.5 Yards | -112 at FanDuel

Aaron Rodgers Regular-Season Total Passing TDs: Over/Under 30.5

While this number is relatively low compared to how Rodgers historically performs, it is not to the aggressive level that the passing yards over/under was. Again taking out the two injured seasons, Rodgers has gone over this total seven times in his career in 12 fully healthy seasons, including the past two years.

With that said, he missed it the previous two seasons prior to that, and that includes one fully healthy season from Adams.

To hit this over, Rodgers would need to average roughly 1.8 touchdown passes per game. From 2019 to now, Rodgers has played in seven games without Adams and here is his touchdown total from each of those games: 0, 2, 5, 3, 3, 4, 2. So, aside from that first one, he has thrown two or more touchdowns in every start Adams has missed the past three seasons.

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Still, we know Rodgers can do it for a three or four game stretch, but doing it for an entire season is a different animal. That is still 29 touchdowns from the past two seasons combined that Rodgers needs to replace.

In the Red Zone is where I think Rodgers is going to miss Adams the most. In 2021 Rodgers threw 28 touchdowns in the Red Zone- ten of those were to Adams.

In 2020 Rodgers threw 35 Red Zone touchdowns, and 14 of those were to Adams.

So, despite leaning over in his passing yards prop, the under is the play here.

Rodgers Total Passing TDs Betting Pick: Under 30.5 TDs | -112 at FanDuel

Aaron Rodgers AP NFL Regular Season MVP Odds: +1000

Even with losing Adams and having his season-long over/unders lower than his career averages, Rodgers still has the fifth-best MVP odds at +1000. He is just behind Justin Herbert (+900) and one spot ahead of Joe Burrow (+1200).

While I do think the Packers will have a good season overall and could easily be the top seed in the NFC for the fourth straight season, I don’t see any value on Rodgers winning his third straight MVP.

The guess here is that this Packers season will resemble the 2018 year, where the Packers had a 13-3 record, but Rodgers only threw for 26 touchdowns and 4000 yards. They will instead rely on their stout defense and running-game to secure victories in 2022.

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