Elite 8: Villanova vs Houston Betting Picks, Odds, & Predictions March 26th

This is the first of the Elite 8 matchups, with this game being played on Saturday, March 26th at 6:09PM ET at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX.

It should come as no surprise to those who follow college basketball closely that the Elite 8 features a matchup between the Houston Cougars and the Villanova Wildcats. Despite not being blue bloods like the Dukes and UNCs of the world, these two teams have been college hoops powerhouses for a while now.

Despite being the 5 seed, Houston is actually the favorite against the 2nd seeded Villanova. They are 2 point favorites, with the game total sitting at a low over/under of 128.5.

The MO on both of these teams in the tournament has been defense, defense, and more defense, but we’ll start on the Houston side of the ball. With 3 of the 4 number 1 seeds now eliminated, Houston is the best team remaining according to KenPom.

Despite only being a 5 seed, they are actually the 2nd rated team in all of college basketball. To be fair, this rating does include games played in the NCAA tournament which obviously gives them an edge, but they were highly rated before the tournament started. For reference, Villanova is only ranked 11th using the same logic.

Houston is also the only team remaining that ranks in the top 10 on both offensive and defensive rating, ranking 8th and 9th, respectively. I was surprised initially to see their offense ranked higher than their defense, considering how well their defense has played in the tourney and especially against Arizona.

Houston held Arizona 60 points on 33% shooting overall, and only 31.8% from 3. They also forced Arizona to commit 14 turnovers with their smothering defense.

Now, they go against a still talented Villanova team, but one that is not quite as good on offense as Arizona. Villanova is led by super senior Collin Gillespie, and two other shooters who all shoot above 34% from 3. So, if Houston can hold Villanova to a cold shooting night, then it could be along night for the Wildcats.

Villanova, while being known for their offense, has also taken a step up defensively so far this tournament. Albeit against a far worse team in Michigan than Arizona, they held Michigan to a similar low point total in 55 points and low shooting %’s.

As mentioned above, the concern for Villanova is going to be in the jump-shot. ‘Nova won two titles by shooting the crap out of the ball, but they only made 30% of their 3s against Michigan.

Another concern is the injury to Collin Gillespie. He seemed to tweak his knee at the very end of the Michigan game, and as of right now there are no reports on whether the injury will limit him in any way. It is especially concerning since this is the same knee that Gillespie hurt at the end of last season.

All in all, I view Houston as the safer pick here. Their defense will be the best that Villanova will have seen all tournament, while Villanova is also more reliant on making jump-shots. If the jumpers aren’t falling, the offense is prone to stagnation and can get clunky.

So, I am riding with Houston -2 here. I bet this on Caesars Sportsbook.

Villanova vs Houston Pick:

The best March Madness Elite 8 betting pick for this game is Houston -2. I bet this on Caesars Sportsbook at -110 odds.

Villanova vs Houston Prediction:

My prediction is that Houston will win this game 63-60.