With only 16 remaining teams, we wanted to take a look at the teams that have best odds to win the national championship and give them a power ranking, with some analysis as well.
One thing to keep in mind when looking these power rankings is to remember that not only do the futures odds take into account the actual team, but also the path to get to the championship. So, a team like Purdue who might make it to the Elite 8 without playing a single digit seeded team has an easier avenue to get to the championship than a team like Duke, who still has all the top 4 seeds remaining in their region.
Overall, there weren’t many surprises here. Sorry to Saint Peters, but a 15 seed has never made it past the Sweet 16, so it would be a shock to see them beat Purdue let alone make an even longer run. It was also not a shock to see the 3 remaining 1 seeds round out the top 3, with the order going Gonzaga, Kansas, and then Arizona.
While Gonzaga at 1 makes complete sense, as they are the top seed in the entire tournament, a valid argument could be made that Kansas should be ahead of them. There are a couple reasons for this. For starters, they have a much easier path to the finals in general. Both the 2 seed and 3 seed in Kansas’s region have been eliminated, with their matchup against Providence as the best team left in the Midwest region. Gonzaga has also struggled so far, not quite looking like the best team in the tournament.
Another minor surprise was seeing Purdue all the way up at 5th, ahead of teams like Villanova and Duke, but, as mentioned earlier, this was all because of the easy route that Purdue has the rest of the way. They have a very realistic chance of making the final 4 while the highest seed they faced being an 8 seed, if UNC upsets UCLA. Duke, meanwhile, would need to beat Texas Tech, and then presumably Gonzaga to even get to the final 4. Same logic with Villanova – they would still possibly need to go through the 1 seed in their region in Arizona.
Speaking of Villanova, they are my favorite bet of all the remaining teams to win the championship. So, I love the value of getting them at +1200 at Caesars Sportsbook. My prediction is that they will beat Michigan with relative ease, and then in the other Sweet 16 matchup Houston upsets Arizona, giving Villanova a much easier path.