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NCAA Tournament Odds & Futures Predictions: March Madness Appears Wide Open
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This season has been one of the craziest years of college basketball that I can remember. Per ESPN Stats and Info, eight teams ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll at the time have lost, which is already tied for the most ever since the AP Poll began in 1948.
It’s been a year without a dominant team or even a dominant group of teams.
While this may have made it harder for the average college basketball fan to follow, the parity means March Madness is shaping up to be one of the most fun and unpredictable tournaments ever.
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Odds to Win 2023 March Madness
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Houston Cougars | +700 |
| Arizona Wildcats | +800 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +800 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | +1200 |
| UCLA Bruins | +1200 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | +1200 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | +1600 |
| Connecticut Huskies | +1800 |
| Baylor Bears | +1800 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | +2500 |
| Texas Longhorns | +2500 |
| Creighton Bluejays | +3000 |
| Saint Mary’s Gaels | +3000 |
| TCU Horned Frogs | +3000 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | +3000 |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | +4000 |
| Indiana Hoosiers | +4000 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | +4000 |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | +4000 |
| Iowa State Cyclones | +4000 |
| Miami Hurricanes | +5000 |
| Duke Blue Devils | +5000 |
| Xavier Musketeers | +5000 |
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights | +5000 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | +5000 |
Who is the Favorite to Win March Madness?
The Houston Cougars are currently the favorites to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament, but not by much.
Houston is at +700, with Arizona and Alabama close behind at +800. The Cougars are 25-2 on the season with their only losses coming to Alabama back in December and then Temple in January.
The American isn’t the gauntlet that other conferences are, as Houston finds itself favored by double-digits, but the Cougars have taken care of business for the most part.
March Madness Futures Betting Picks & Prediction
The Safe Pick: Houston Cougars to Win March Madness | +700 at Caesars
BREAKING: There is no safe pick in March Madness.
Any team in the tournament can lose any given game, especially this year. With that said, Houston appears to be the least-flawed team in the country. KenPom ranks the Cougars fourth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency, so they’re capable of winning at each end of the floor.
Senior guard Marcus Sasser leads their scoring with nearly 17 points per game, and four other players average at least nine.
The offensive and defensive stats are elite across the board, and I love a team that’s sixth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Those extra possessions could make all the difference in March.
My only concerns with Houston are at the foul line (both getting there, and making the free throws), and the fact that they’ve played a softer schedule than a lot of other teams.
The Longshot: Miami Hurricanes to Win March Madness | +5000 at Caesars
I have no idea why Miami is 50-1 to win the national title. This isn’t a season where there are several teams with massive talent advantages, so a team like Miami can hang with anyone they take the court against.
The Hurricanes are 23-5 with just one loss coming outside of Quad 1. Miami has also proven it can beat those teams in Quad 1, with a 7-4 record against those strong opponents.
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The ACC may not be the gauntlet that it often is, but Miami is hot at the right time. The Hurricanes are currently on a seven-game winning streak, with their last loss coming on Jan. 28 at Pittsburgh.
During this streak, the Hurricanes have three Quad 1 wins, two of which came on the road.
I used a free bet on their future at +6000 last week, but I still love it at +5000 now.
The Value Pick: Kansas Jayhawks to Win March Madness | +1200 at Caesars
Between Kansas, UCLA and Purdue, I like the eventual champion to come out of this group currently at +1200.
Houston is obviously very good but hasn’t been tested as much, as mentioned earlier. Arizona is prone to strange losses like at home against Washington State or at Stanford. To say Alabama has serious off-the-court issues would be an understatement.
Kansas is the defending champion, and the team I like the most in this +1200 group, just edging out the Bruins and Boilermakers.
Though they did win the title last season, this year’s Kansas squad did not return much production from that team. That doesn’t mean they aren’t still capable.
The Jayhawks have played one of the toughest schedules in the country as part of the Big 12, which is by far the best conference in college basketball this season.
KU is 14-5 in Quad 1 and has not lost a game outside of the top quadrant. After a three-game losing streak in late January, the Jayhawks are 7-1 since with all eight games being in the first Quadrant.
Head coach Bill Self has four players averaging in double-figures, led by junior Jalen Wilson who is just shy of 20 points per game. The Jayhawks have both the depth and experience against tough opponents to make another deep run in March.
