It is no surprise that Duke, in Coach K’s last year coaching, made it to the Sweet 16. They have an extremely tough matchup, though, going up against Texas Tech. This is the Sweet 16 matchup that I am the most excited to watch. These two teams tip-off at 9:40 EST on Thursday, March 24th at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Surprisingly, Texas Tech is the slight favorite here. They are 1 point favorites, with the total sitting at 137.
Looking at the moneyline odds below, there is some value betting on Texas Tech ML if you can get them on Barstool Sportsbook or BetRivers Sportsbook. They are currently priced at -114 on those two books, while the OddsJam line has them at -119.
Starting with the higher profile team in Duke, the circus surrounding Coach K’s final season coaching college basketball takes away from just how talented this team is. Led by freshman Paolo Banchero, who is a potential top 5 pick in this upcoming NBA draft, and junior Wendell Moore, this Duke team is loaded. Banchero leads Duke in points per game with 17, and also in rebounds with just under 8, while Moore is the main distributor on Duke, averaging just over 4.5 assists per game. With all this talent, it was no surprise to see them with the 4th ranked offense in the entire NCAA.
They had a tough second round matchup against Michigan State, but their offense had no trouble scoring in that game. They finished with 85 total points in what ended up being a 9 point victory.
With all this said, Texas Tech will be no easy picnic for Duke. Duke may have had the 4th best offense in college basketball, but Texas Tech has the best ranked defense in all of college hoops, giving up only 57.5 points per game. So, this Sweet 16 matchup will be an interesting battle of strength vs strength.
Duke’s top offense vs Texas Tech’s top defense. Texas Tech also ranked highly on offense over the course of the season, but recently they have had trouble scoring. On the season they averaged 72 points per game, but, removing their first round cakewalk against Montana State, they have failed to score over 65 points in 2 of their last 8 games.
Overall, after looking at the matchup here, I like Texas Tech in a close, low scoring game. Despite the high flying offense that Duke has, I trust that Texas Tech will be able to limit Duke from scoring enough to get the win here. I also love the under in this game. The total currently sits at 137, as mentioned earlier, and with Texas Tech’s strong defense and offensive struggles I can definitely see this game turning into a slugfest with scoring hard to come by.
Duke vs Texas Tech pick:
The best March Madness betting pick for this game is the game total going under 137. This bet is -110 odds on WynnBet Sportsbook.
Another good Sweet 16 betting pick is Texas Tech -1 at -109 odds. This NCAAB bet is on BetRivers Sportsbook.
Duke vs Texas Tech prediction:
My prediction is that Texas Tech will win this game 69-67.