There’s a saying that Bill Simmons has been using to describe different teams in the playoffs this year after a Game 1 loss (he used it for the Nets against the Celtics and he’s now used it for the Grizzlies): they need to win 5 games to win this series. While this statement on its face makes no sense, what he means is that the Grizzlies played game 1 well enough that reasonably it should have been a win. But because it was a loss, they need to play games at that level at least 4 more times to win, whereas their opponents (in this case, the Warriors) were able to steal a game that they were outplayed in.
For Game 2, at the very least I do think the Grizzlies are going to be able to achieve that. The Grizzlies this year have been such a balanced powerhouse that it seems highly unlikely that they drop two straight games on their home court. In particular, I expect Desmond Bane (3-of-10 for 9 points) and Dillon Brooks (3-of-13 for 8 points) to have better games. Both players averaged 18 PPG this year, so their drop in production, while somewhat made up by Morant and JJJ, was a difficult pill for the Grizzlies to swallow.
While it’s easy for us to say that the Grizzlies just have to do “X” better to win Game 2, the Warriors were not without their flaws in Game 1 – in particular, the ejection of Draymond Green. His ejection could have had a much bigger impact than it ended up having, and he’s truly fortunate that the Warriors did not lose that game or else his flagrant 2 and subsequent outburst would have dominated the post-game conversation far more than it has.
Steph Curry and Klay Thompson were both uncharacteristically cold in Game 1 (8-for-20 and 6-for-19, respectively) but the scoring outburst from Poole and some timely contributions from Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II helped compensate for the slow start for the Splash Bros.
Going into Game 2, the big question is this: which team will be able to drive the offensive flow of the game? If the Grizzlies allow the Warriors to settle into their half-court offense and slow the pace down, their poorer shooting will likely signal an 0-2 series start. But if the Grizzlies get out and run and take over the transition game, against an older, more injury prone Warriors team, they have a strong shot at evening up the series, particularly if Ja Morant is able to replicate his success (34/9/9 with only 3 turnovers) from Game 1.
With all of this in mind, I do expect the Grizzlies to take advantage of their home court and even the series before going on the road – my recommended bet for Game 2 of Warriors/Grizzlies is the Grizzlies Moneyline, available for +110 on BetRivers.
I also have a bonus bet for this one, shaped by the Game 1 ejection of Draymond Green. Draymond has experienced playoff suspensions in the past due to the flagrants (namely, the highly iconic Game 5 suspension against the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016) and will likely work to act as a set-up man as much as possible in Game 2 to minimize the attention he gets from the refs, while getting his teammates going. To that end, I’d also recommend taking Draymond Green over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists, available for -125 with BetMGM.