Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – June 16, 2022

Boston continued to look rattled on the offensive end, unsure how to attack the switch-heavy defense of the Warriors. They surrendered 18 more turnovers and only shot 41% from the field. Jayson Tatum was able to get his jump shot going but was still only 3 for 8 on shots inside the paint.

Golden State Warriors 

The Warriors continued with their new starting lineup from Game 4, with Otto Porter Jr. replacing Kevon Looney. This places Draymond Green at the center spot, facilitating a more switch-heavy defense.

They jumped on the Celtics early, riding the home crowd with intense physicality from the jump. They held Boston to just 16 first-quarter points, eventually taking a 12-point lead into halftime. 

The Celtics finally caved in their defensive coverage of Curry. After a 43-point drubbing in Game 4, coach Ime Udoka had his bigs come up higher to the level of the screen. They threw in some on-ball traps and even face guarded him close to half court.

It definitely had an impact on the scoring of Curry, who was not able to get in any offensive rhythm throughout the night. Only 15 points on 22 shots for the Warriors superstar, and only got to the line three times. I would expect him to turn it back around as the series moves to Boston for Game 6. 

What the adjusted defense did was open up the Warriors’ ball movement offense. After games of heavy doses of the high screen and roll offense with high-volume jump shots from Curry, in Game 5 others were able to get involved. His “gravity” still is the entry point of anything they do on offense.

Green is at his best attacking a “4 on 3” situation where he has the ball in the middle of the floor and was his most aggressive self of the series. He was able to get downhill to score and play make at the center position. 

Klay Thompson is starting to heat up in the Finals. With all the chaos Curry causes on any off-ball action, it’s easy to forget about Thompson running a similar set on the other side of the floor. He is 14 for 34 from three in the last three games now and hit huge timely shots as Boston made their run in the third.

The experience of him, Curry, and Green are starting to show as the series goes on, and they will continue to need him to produce to close this series out. 

The story of the night is Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins has undoubtedly been the second-most consistent Warrior of these Finals, and his confidence continued to grow as the game progressed. Many times when they needed a basket, Wiggins was able to attack his matchup for a tough layup or fading turnaround jumper.

His defense on Tatum has persisted in being incredible, not allowing any easy baskets. His transformation into a two-way winning player has helped catapult the Warriors back into being one win away from a championship. 

Boston Celtics 

The Celtics finally lost consecutive games in the playoffs, and now face elimination going into Game 6. Coach Udoka has persisted that their issue is on the offensive end, and it continued in Game 5.

They turned the ball over 18 times and only shot 34% from three. Boston has adjusted to match up with the “small ball” of Golden State, playing only one of Al Horford or Robert Williams at a time.

With Green at the opposite center position, the Warriors are ultra-aggressive on any hand-off type action that the Celtics live off of. The physicality disrupts the offensive motion and has baited Boston into becoming a pure isolation attacking team. 

The offensive night from Jaylen Brown is indicative of this. He was only 5 for 18 from the floor, with 5 turnovers. He elected to take a ton of off-the-dribble jump shots and over-penetrated the defense. The switching and help defense by Golden State made him indecisive on his drives and pull-ups.

Brown will need to walk the line between his aggression and creating for others. They are going to need a turnaround game from Brown to force this into a Game 7 back in Golden State. 

Tatum was finally able to get his offense going, but it is still on the Warriors’ terms. He was 10 for 20 from the field, with 5 for 9 from three. Tatum was still just 3 for 8 on shots inside the paint and had just 4 assists with 4 turnovers.

Wiggins has continued to disrupt his offensive rhythm with physicality and taking away the right-hand drives. He was able to get a few of his patented step-back threes to go, but those are shots the Warriors will live with. As Golden State continues to play small ball, Tatum will have to get more pressure at the rim to create shots for others to force a Game 7. 

The Celtics reluctantly switched up their coverage against Curry, going for a more aggressive trapping scheme. It had the intended impact of slowing his offense but got the others in a rhythm for Golden State.

Finding the balance of when to be aggressive or force Curry to beat you off the dribble will be the defining key to keeping this series alive for Boston. 

Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6 Betting Pick: Celtics Moneyline | -170 at Caesars

As the series shifts to Boston for Game 6, I would expect Boston to protect home court and force a Game 7 back in Golden State.

With these teams being as evenly matched as they are, I don’t see the Warriors taking three in a row to close this out.

The role players for Boston should be able to shoot better at home and expect a turnaround game for Jaylen Brown. 

I would bet this up to -200.

Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6 Prediction

The Celtics will take Game 6 and force a Game 7 with a score of 110-103.