The OddsJam Perfect Line has the Boston Celtics winning Game 3 of the NBA Finals on June 8, 2022 in Boston with 58.61% confidence and a final score of 110-101.
After a meltdown in the fourth quarter of Game 1, all the pressure was on the Warriors to deliver in Game 2. They would do exactly that, being fueled by a commanding third quarter. Steph Curry was exquisite once again, putting up a 29-point night on 5 for 12 from downtown. The lead would inflate to as much as 29 and tie this series 1-1 going back to Boston.
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The Celtics looked like a team that was content with getting the split on the road. Jayson Tatum bounced back from a rough shooting in Game 1, recording 28 points with 6 rebounds and 3 assists. The Celtics scored 31 in the first quarter but would proceed to only score 34 in the second and third combined.
The first two games have been decided by huge quarter runs. After allowing a 40-16 disaster in the fourth quarter of Game 1, they returned the favor with a 35-14 third quarter run in Game 2. The intensity and focus were there from the start. They switched more actions and purposefully timed the traps against Brown and Tatum. They held the Celtics to just 37% shooting and forced a ton of contested jump shots. Their stingy defense at the rim held Boston to just 15-47 on 2-point attempts.
A huge adjustment was the increase in screen and roll actions. Steve Kerr and the Warrior’s offense is mainly predicated on motion and off-ball screens or cuts to find shots. Those types of actions are what switching is meant to negate. The Celtics have committed to switching just about any screen to take away an advantage.
The counter from the Warriors has been to shift to more of a traditional high screen and roll offense. It puts bigs like Horford and Robert Williams into coverages where they need to defend laterally. It gets Curry going “downhill” and compromises the defense to create open shots.
Jordan Poole also benefited from this switch into a high-screen offense. Hit 5 of 9 from 3 en route to 17 points and 3 assists. His ability to attack off the dribble and give Curry another ball handler is vital to the Warrior’s success. Poole spelled a few Boston runs by driving into the paint and dishing dump-off passes to the big in the dunker spot near the rim.
He allows Curry to not have to create for every offensive possession. They will need similar production from Poole as the series shifts to Boston.
The Warriors got an unsung hero back in Gary Payton II, who was injured in Game 2 of the series against Memphis. He didn’t record a steal or block but was crucial to the swarming team defense. He can play multiple positions and helped to force Brown into a 5 for 17 night from the field. Expect his minutes to increase as the series goes on.
Klay Thompson has continued to struggle with his shot, going 4 for 19 on just 1 for 8 from downtown in Game 1. Boston has done an incredible job of staying attached “top-locking” and “pre-switching” any screen action he tries to get open. In addition, the loss of a first step due to the injuries suffered also limits the amount of separation he creates. The cold streaks are easier to manage at home but they will need better performances to take games on the road.
Boston Celtics
The main story for the Celtics was their turnovers, driven by a combination of a locked-in Warriors team with a ton of careless decision making with the basketball. Going with Marcus Smart in the starting lineup and straying from having a “traditional” point guard puts a lot of pressure on him and the wings to be efficient playmakers and create shots. The Warriors adjusted from Game 1 to pressure Al Horford and force the dribble hand-offs or passes to be contested. This included living with switching Curry on to Tatum and Jaylen Brown while sending timely purposeful traps to coax them into errant passes.
The Celtics threw the ball away 18 times, with Tatum and Smart having half of them. The Warriors scored 33 points off those giveaways, spearheading them into transition and easy baskets. Turnovers are a constant achilles heel Celtics, as they average almost 5 more a game in losses vs wins. It’s important to keep that number down, to keep the Warriors out of their deadly transition offense.
After a huge night from the role guys in Game 1, everyone struggled to produce in any way in Game 2. Horford after a 26-point night to kick off the series was held to just 1-4 shooting and 2 points. The Warriors decided not to drop back and wait for him to facilitate their offense but fully pressure and switch more actions. Golden State trusted Klay Thompson to hold his own on post-ups and box-outs. Going forward, the Celtics are going to need Horford to be a presence if he keeps getting smaller defenders switched over.
Smart is seen as the heart of this Boston team, and they need a much more efficient game going into Game 3. After an 18-point night in Game 1, he was also held to just 2 points. The Warriors closed the gaps and anticipated his passes on his drive and kicks. Threw the ball away a ton on high-risk passes in transition, and forced up tough contested shots. His improved facilitating and decision-making is a big reason Boston is in this position, and they need that going forward to Game 3.
Celtics vs. Warriors Game 3 Betting Pick: Celtics Moneyline | -160 at Caesars
The Celtic’s have not lost consecutive games yet these playoffs and would be expected to be the more desperate team going into Game 3. I also expect a bounce-back game from Brown and Smart at home. I have Boston taking Game 3 at home and would bet this down to -180.
