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The best bets and resources to make you more profitable
|Suns Win Percentage||50%|
|Mavericks Win Percentage||50%|
|Game Date & Time||May 6, 9:30 p.m. ET|
Let’s get it out of the way: the Mavericks are overmatched so far in this series, and the heroics from Luka Doncic through two games haven’t done much to change that. Our preview for this one is going to be fairly short, because the Mavericks haven’t given us enough to like thus far for us to say much different about Game 3 compared to Games 1 and 2. The reality is thus: the Phoenix Suns are the most genuine type of 1 seed, and while the Mavericks have superstar talent and a good roster, they don’t have the firepower, coaching, or sheer talent across the board that the Suns have.
While the results thus far haven’t given us much to love when it comes to the Mavericks chances in this series, they are still a 4 seed and a 50-win team, and they do have arguably the best young player in basketball leading their team and playing 38 MPG – and clearly Vegas sees something they like here, as Game 3 (the first game in Dallas) is essentially a pick-em.
That said, I just don’t see the Mavericks having a strong shot at stealing more than 1 game in this series, and I think it’s more likely that that will be Game 4 rather than Game 3, when their backs are up against the wall.
In Game 2, the Suns further widened the gap between themselves and the Mavericks that was visible in Game 1. We spoke about this at length on the OddsJam Sweat the Bet podcast on Thursday, May 5th – the Suns spent the entirety of the game targeting Luka, wearing him down, and forcing him to be the primary defender as often as possible for both Chris Paul and Devin Booker.
Unfortunately for Luka and the Mavs, he simply isn’t that level of defender, and his notoriously average conditioning let him down throughout the game, as he was visibly gassed by the end of the 4th.
Making matters worse was the supporting cast: Reggie Bullock and Spencer Dinwiddie were the 2nd and 3rd scoring options for the Mavs, but only combined for 27 points on 8-of-19 shooting. Beyond that, they (along with Doncic) were the only three Mavericks players to score in double figures. Meanwhile, the Suns got an efficient 30 point game from Devin Booker, and their #2 and #3 scorers ended up as CP3 and Jae Crowder, who combined for 43 points on 15-of-23 shooting.
Even with Deandre Ayton having a night plagued by foul trouble (deserved or otherwise), the Mavericks weren’t able to get their offense going against the Suns, and they weren’t able to force them into inefficient shots or a significant number of forced turnovers (16 in total).
We won’t be recommending any sizable bet on either team’s moneyline or spread, as the odds are just too close for there to be a ton of value there. It’s the playoffs and anything can happen (read: a CP3 injury), so unless you have an inside scoop on a player injury, avoid the game result bets. Instead, we’re going to look more towards player props. Our recommendation is Luka Doncic under 50.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists.
In his playoff run so far this year, Luka has averaged 33/10/6 – which is right under that recommended bet of 50.5. While he certainly has the potential to exceed that total, the poor shooting so far from his teammates and the rebounding prowess of the Suns gives us a good feeling that he won’t be exceeding his playoff averages.
We’ll also be taking the total score to exceed 230.5, which you can get for +235 with FanDuel. So far in this series, the combined score is averaging out to 236.5. So far through the 2022 playoffs, the Mavs are averaging 107.1 PPG (across 8 games) while the Suns are averaging 114.75 PPG (across 8 games).
While the total score we’ll be betting the Over on is greater than this 221.85 PPG total, it’s fully in line with their Game 1 and Game 2 scores. If you want to play it a bit safer, o225.5 is available for +156 with FanDuel.
My official pick for Game 3 of Mavericks/Suns is Luka Doncic under 50.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (PRA)
I expect the Suns to get out to a 3-0 lead, 123-111.