Even without Kyle Lowry, the Heat took a convincing 3-1 lead in the series after blowing out the Hawks in game 4. Now, the series heads back to Miami with the Heat having a chance to close it out at home. This game is being played on Tuesday, April 26th at 7 p.m. ET.
Of course, the Heat are going to be massive favorites here. They are at home, and fresh off a drubbing of the Hawks in Atlanta. The point spread is Heat -7.5, with the over/under at 217.5.
The Heat started a little slow, and were missing Kyle Lowry, but turned on the jets to end the 2nd quarter and the game was pretty much over there. Aside from a 4th quarter barrage from Trae Young in game 3, he continued his horrible series against this smothering Heat defense.
He finished the game with only 9 points on 3-11 shooting, and had 5 turnovers as well. He was a -27 in terms of plus/minus in the 35 minutes he played. The Heat have not been friendly to “ice Trae.”
Now, after losing by 24 at home, the Hawks have to travel to Miami down 3-1 and try to keep their season alive. So… yes, the Hawks season is on life support.
The Heat stumbled in the 4th quarter of game 3, but other than that have looked very good this series against the Hawks. All 3 of their wins are by double digits.
Jimmy Butler dominated game 4 with 36 points and 11 rebounds, while the Heat also had 4 other players score in the double figures. The Hawks defense can’t keep up with all the Heat offensive movement and shooting, while the Hawks offense also can’t grapple with the Heats defensive length and versatility.
So to summarize- the Hawks struggle on both offense and defense. Tough to win that way.
I have two bets for this game that I really like, and, as I’m sure comes as no surprise, one of them is backing the Heat to cover the spread. I bet the Heat -7 at WynnBET.
If the Hawks were going to put up a fight and make this a series, they would have done so in game 4 when they were at home and had a chance to tie the series. Now, with the Heat at home and looking dominant as ever, I have a hard time believing this game is even going to be close.
As I mentioned earlier, all 3 of the Heats wins this series have been by double digits.
For my second play, I am also fading the Hawks, this time fading their team total. I bet the Hawks team total to go under 105.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.
The Hawks have scored fewer than 92 points (twice) more times this series than they have gone over this team total (once.)
Again, at home in game 4 with a chance to tie the series, the Hawks only managed to score 86 points. The Heat defense causes monumental issues for Trae Young on the offensive end, and Trae is really the Hawks only source of offense.
So, if Trae struggles the Hawks offense struggles.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Game 5 Picks:
My official NBA betting picks is to take the Heat -7. I bet this at -108 odds at WynnBET Sportsbook.
I also like taking the Hawks team total under 105.5. I bet this at Caesars Sportsbook at -120 odds.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Game 5 Prediction:
My prediction for this game is that the Heat are going to win 103-91.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Betting Preview
Friday night was a wild one in Atlanta. After a delayed game start due to a suspicious package outside of the arena, both teams got off to a slow start and ended the first quarter 24-22 in favor of the Heat. The game yo-yoed from there, with the Hawks having a dominant second, the Heat an even more dominant third and finally the Hawks taking advantage of a turnover-filled collapse from the Heat. Atlanta took the closely contested win 111-110 after stopping a Jimmy Butler jumper in the closing moments. While the Heat were the clear better team in Games 1 and 2, the potential loss of Kyle Lowry to a hamstring injury may make this a more closely contested series than originally thought.
With the loss of Lowry, I expect Butler and Tyler Herro to take on larger ball-handling loads. Herro had a very slow start to these playoffs — putting up only 6/5/5 in Game 1 and 15/3/2 in Game 2 — but he came into his own in Game 3, notching 24/7/4 despite the loss. With the Hawks still missing Clint Capela, there should be a fun style matchup between the Hawks going small and surrounding Trae Young with shooters, and the Heat likely trending towards ISO-ball, with Butler and Herro each taking turns as the primary ballhander and everyone dumping the ball in to Bam Adebayo to slow the game down and force the Hawks to deal with his size and inside game.
With the smothering, switch-heavy defense of the Heat and the tighter whistles that come from a playoff atmosphere, Young’s normally efficient game has deteriorated somewhat and his averages have declined accordingly. Through three games, he’s averaging 30.7 combined points/rebounds/assists with a high turnover rate. With that in mind, I’ll be taking Trae Young under 40.5 points/rebounds/assists, currently available for -115 at Caesars.
Through three games, the Heat and Hawks are averaging a combined 108 points in the first half. With the Hawks’ penchant for starting the game slowly and the loss of Lowry for the Heat, I expect both teams to struggle in the first half of Game 4. I’ll be taking under 109.5 combined points in the first half, currently available for +145 at BetMGM. As these teams have only exceeded this combined total once, the odds are on our side that they’ll continue to have a low-scoring first half.
Miami Heatvs.Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Pick:
Trae Young Under 40.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists | -115 at Caesars
The Heat have a commanding 2-0 lead in this series, but now we head to Atlanta where the Hawks have two games at home. This game is being played on Friday, April 22nd at 7PM ET.
With the Hawks now being at home, the Heat are only slight favorites here. They are 1.5 point favorites, with the over/under at 222.
In a wild stat that somehow didn’t come out until now, the Hawks have never covered the spread in a loss this entire season. They are literally 0-41 ATS in their losses this year, including the playoffs. Wild!
This means, obviously, that the Heat are 2-0 in this series straight up, and also 2-0 against the spread as well. They got there in two different ways, too.
The Heat dominated the Hawks in game 1, and then won a closer game in game 2 thanks to a stellar performance from Jimmy Butler. He finished with 45 points total, on 4 made 3-pointers! It is rare to see Jimmy make one 3 a game, let alone 4.
Credit the Hawks for putting up a fight in game 2, and the 10 point margin of victory wasn’t necessarily representative of how close the game actually was in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter.
With 3 minutes and 15 seconds left, the Hawks were only down 3, with the score at 101-104. Then, Jimmy Butler scored 7 straight points, the Heat went on a 11-4 run, and that was that.
Aside from Butler going bananas, if there was a game the Hawks were going to steal, it was game 2. Trae Young played better, scoring 25 points with 7 assists. Of course, he did have 10 turnovers and only shot 2-10 from 3, so he still wasn’t great.
The Hawks also got a stellar performance from Bogdan Bogdanovic. He ended the game with 29 points on 5 made 3’s.
Overall, I get why the spread is down to Heat -1.5 with game 2 being close and the Hawks being at home, but the Heat are also just way better. Sometimes, it’s as simple as that. So, I’m riding with the Heat -1.5 on WynnBET Sportsbook.
I got them at -108 on WynnBET, while every other book has them at -110 or worse. So, there is some value there.
Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Game 3 Pick:
My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Heat -1.5. I bet this on WynnBET Sportsbook at -108 odds.
Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat Game 3 Prediction:
My prediction for this game is that the Heat win 107-103.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Game 2 Betting Preview
After a game 1 Heat annihilation over the Hawks, we stay in Miami for game 2 in the NBA playoff series between the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. This game is being played on Tuesday, April 19th at 7:30PM ET.
It is no surprise that the Heat are once again heavy favorites here, with the spread at Miami -8, and the total set at 217.
As I mentioned earlier, the Heat crushed the Hawks in game 1, and I see no reason why game 2 should be any different.
Trae Young finished game 1 with 8 points, 4 assists, and 6 rebounds, easily one of his worst games of the year. The Heat have guarded Young tough all year, and again succeeded at that in game 1.
The Heat also picked apart the Hawks defense, shooting the crap out of the ball and finishing the game with 18 made 3’s total. Despite two wins in the play-in game, this Hawks team was inconsistent and mediocre all year.
Meanwhile, the Heat are neither of those things. The Heat should win comfortably again in game 2.
I love the value I got them at on WynnBET. I got them at -7.5 at -108 odds, whereas the OddsJam Line prices this game at -8 at even money.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Game 2 Pick:
My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Heat spread -7.5. I got this on WynnBET Sportsbook at -108 odds.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Game 2 Prediction:
My prediction for game 2 is that the Miami Heat win 112-99.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Game 1 Betting Preview
You will see the full series preview and analysis below, so I’ll keep the game preview itself relatively short. I’ll provide my official prediction and be on my way.
The Heat, as the 1 seed, are currently 6.5 point favorites here, according to the OddsJam Perfect Line, with the total set at 218.5.
I’ll keep this brief- I’m taking the Heat moneyline here. It is currently at -250 on BetMGM for them to win Game 1. They’ll have home court advantage, they’re coming off a week of rest, and they have far more playoff experience on their side.
On the Hawks end of things, they’re coming off of a high intensity game against the Cavs and a blowout against the Hornets, but they’re absolutely not rested & there’s a strong chance that Clint Capela will be forced to miss at least Game 1.
While the Heat average 110 PPG and the Hawks average 113.9 PPG in the regular season, I expect both teams’ scoring averages to drop in the playoffs, particularly as the Heat will look to grind the game out against the Hawks and take advantage of their lack of big-man depth.
With that in mind, while the OddsJam Line is set at 218.5, I’m going to be taking the under with BetRivers – you can get under 215 for +118 odds.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Game 1 Picks:
My official NBA betting pick for this game is to take the Heat moneyline. I got this at -250 on BetMGM Sportsbook.
I also like taking the alternate under 215. I got this on BetRivers at +118.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Game 1 Predictions:
My prediction for this game is that the Miami Heat will win 108-101.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Series Odds & Analysis
With a come-from-behind win on Friday night, the 9 seed Hawks have punched their ticket to a first round match-up with the 1 seed Heat. Things were looking dicey & trending negatively there for a bit for the Hawks, particularly when Clint Capela pulled Evan Mobley down and in the process buckled his own leg, but a second half takeover from Trae Young helped the Hawks get it done down the stretch.
I’ll cut to the chase before jumping into the full preview. The Atlanta Hawks are good, but they’re not as good as they were expected to be this year.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have been accused of being a “fake 1 seed” for seemingly half the season now, but they got the wins they needed to ensure home court throughout the Eastern playoffs. They also have one of the most stylistically balanced starting 5’s in the NBA, along with the best coach in the East.
So, as a little bit of a sneak preview, I like the Heat in this series and also to win game 1.
No. 1 Heat vs No. 8 Hawks Betting Preview
Head-to-Head Record this year: Heat 3-1 over the Hawks(with the Hawks one victory coming by a single possession)
2021-2022 Record Miami Heat: 53-29
2021-2022 Record Atlanta Hawks: 43-39
I’m taking the Heat to win Game 1 for a number of reasons, but primarily, it’s based on the run the Heat went on to end the season(6 wins in 7 games to seal the 1 seed) and the tired legs the Hawks will have coming off of two play-in games.
The Heat have a few players who need all the rest they can get(Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker, Kyle Lowry) so the week off they’ll have going into Game 1 is going to be hugely important for them, especially taking on a Hawks team that has a bit of momentum from their two play-in wins.
That said, the potential loss of Capela for at least game 1, if not the whole series, is going to make this a very difficult match-up for an already overmatched Hawks team. With John Collins already out, and the potential loss of Capela, the Hawks will be forced to play small almost exclusively, and with Bam Adebayo on the court for the Heat, that’s a recipe for failure.
Bam is averaging a double double this season, putting up an efficient 19/10, and without Capela to slow him down, Lowry & Tyler Herro will likely work to set him up as much as possible.
One of the few flaws in the Heat roster is how little their actual top 5 (Herro, Lowry, Tucker, Adebayo, Butler) have played together. Because of injuries to various players in that list throughout the year, and Herro normally starting games on the bench despite leading the team in minutes per game, this “Death Lineup” hasn’t had much time this year to gel and may have growing pains – the playoffs are obviously not the ideal place for growing pains.
But, with that said, I have too much faith in the talent of this roster and also the coaching of Erik Spoelstra to believe it will take that much time for the Heat to get it together. So, I still like their moneyline in game 1.
And with that game 1 win, I’m also taking the Heat to win the series in 5 games. The Hawks are a gutsy team led by one of the best point guards in the league in Trae Young, but the reality is that they failed to meet expectations this year and have contended with injuries to major players all year.
Two play-in victories against an injured Cavs team and an overmatched Hornets team doesn’t change that. The Heat are simply the better built roster at this point, they’re far more defensively versatile, and they have one of the greatest coaches in the league currently.
I was able to get the Heat win the series 4-1 at +280 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is my pick for this playoff series as well.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Series Pick:
My official NBA betting pick for this series is to take the Heat to win 4-1. I got this at +280 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Series Prediction:
My prediction is that the Heat win this series in 5 games.