Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 10, 2022

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Game 5 Odds

Going into our Game 4 preview, we noted that the Dallas Mavericks were overmatched. Even with a superstar like Luka Doncic, it felt like the Phoenix Suns were better in almost every respect and would bring a 3-1 lead back to Phoenix for Game 5.

Well, that didn’t happen. While Game 4 was the closest game so far (and was an evenly matched game for all but the first quarter), the Mavericks were able to take their second win at home and even up this series going back to Phoenix.

We’ll sound like a broken record at this point, but even with that being the case, this still feels like the Suns’ series to lose.

Chris Paul in particular has looked uncharacteristically poor these past two games, but there haven’t been any injury reports for him so we’ll have to chalk it up as a tough matchup (as Doncic is — in many ways — a bigger, stronger, younger version of CP3) and see if he can right the ship going into Game 5.

Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 Betting Preview

When looking at this series, one of the most common knocks around the league regarding the Mavericks’ chances was their lack of true big man depth (to complete with Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee) and the absurd usage rate for Luka through the regular season (37%) and the playoffs (40%).

These factors are still very much in play. Doncic has been forced to handle the ball for almost half the game, and the Mavericks have been out-rebounded badly in every game thus far.

In Games 1 and 2 when the Mavericks role players weren’t able to settle into their shots — and CP3 was hitting his — that meant dominant victories for the Suns.

In Games 3 and 4 in Dallas, the Mavericks secondary starters and role players stepped up while CP3 regressed, and they were able to even the series back up.

Stopping the Super Stars

So much of this series is going to come down to the Suns forcing the non-Doncic players (such as Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock) into inefficient shots, while the Mavericks will try to force the ball away from Devin Booker and Chris Paul.

Both teams need to force the ball away from the other team’s respective superstars, but the Suns have more options to score if Booker and CP3 are doubled and hounded on every possession.

If the same is done to Doncic, the Mavericks may fall back into their turnover prone and ISO-ball habits from earlier in the season.

Home-Court Advantage

As neither team has won on their opponent’s court yet during this series, the safe and simple choice for Game 5 is to stick with that pattern.

That may change after tonight, but we’re taking the Suns to again defend their home court in Game 5 and improve their record in this series to 3-2.

We won’t be taking the moneyline, as -250 odds are less than ideal for a matchup that has shown itself to be more equal than initially thought.

But we will be taking the Suns -6.5, available for -105 with BetMGM. As none of the previous four games have had a margin of victory under 7 points, we do expect the Suns to continue that trend while they look to have a statement game on their home court. 

Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 Betting Pick

My official pick for Game 5 of Mavericks/Suns is the Suns spread -6.5, available for -105 with BetMGM.

Pick: Suns -6.5 | -105 at BetMGM

Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 Prediction

While the series has evened up at 2 games a piece, I expect the Suns to maintain their home court winning-ways and take Game 5, 122 – 110.