For todays NBA preview, we are analyzing the matchup between two of the best teams in the Western conference in the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz. This game is being played in Dallas at the American Airlines Arena tonight, Sunday, March 27th at 7:30PM ET.
Most books price this game as a pick’em, with the OddsJam Perfect Line slightly favoring the Mavericks. They are currently 1 point favorites with the game total set at 214.
After a slower start to the season, the Mavs have been on fire pretty much since 2022 began. Since January 1st, 2022, the Mavs have the 4th best record in the NBA, going 28-11 in that stretch. They are also currently the 5th seed in the west.
They have some very impressive wins in the month of March as well. They’ve beaten this Jazz team, and they also have beaten the Warriors twice. Just a week ago, in back to back games the Mavericks beat the Celtics and Nets, respectively.
Not surprisingly, the Mavericks hot streak coincides with Luka Doncic playing up to his MVP standard. He came into the season a little out of shape and had a slow start to the year, but he has been dynamite ever since.
On the season he is averaging just under 28 points, 9 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game. If he hadn’t started so slow, he would be legitimately in the MVP discussion.
The Jazz, meanwhile, are having another ho-hum top-tier regular season. They have been doing this for so long that it doesn’t register as news anymore, but they are the 4th seed in the west and have the 3rd best net rating in the NBA.
The problem with the Jazz is they have been so good in the regular season for so long, but also flamed out in the playoffs every year that they don’t get taken seriously as a legitimate title contender. I’m certainly not here to argue their championship merits, but as a regular season team they are a machine.
So, with the Jazz as good as they are and the Mavericks as hot as they are, we have a great game on our hands. For a couple reasons, I am leaning towards the Mavericks. The Jazz play much better at home than they do on the road, and they also struggle to cover when they are the underdog.
As the away team, the Jazz cover less than 42% of the time, and as an underdog they have only covered 33% of the time. Granted, they aren’t underdogs often, but when they do play the NBAs elite they can’t quite hang with them. So, I like the Mavericks here. I locked their moneyline in at -110 on Caesars Sportsbook.
One player prop that I like for this game is Jalen Brunson to go over 20.5 points+rebounds+assists (PRA), also bet on Caesars Sportsbook.
Brunson has been a huge boost for the Mavericks this year. On the season he averages close to 25 PRA, and in the two games against the Jazz this year he averages over the 20.5 number. The fantasy projections I’ve seen have him over 25 for this game, so even at -120 odds I think this is a great bet.
Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Pick:
My official Mavs and Jazz betting pick is the Mavericks moneyline. I bet this at -110 odds on Caesars Sportsbook.
I also like the player prop bet of Jalen Brunson over 20.5 points+rebounds+assists. This bet can be found at -120 odds on Caesars Sportsbook.
Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Prediction:
My prediction is that the Mavericks will win 107-100.