Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 – Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 25, 2022

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Odds

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Betting Preview

After four games of this series, one thing has become relatively evident: this series is likely going to be decided by injuries and just how many starting-caliber players can take the floor for each team for the remaining 2 or 3 games.

With Tyler Herro out in Game 4 and Jimmy Butler clearly struggling to make his way up and down the court, the Heat were unable to generate any offense early on and the game was essentially a foregone conclusion after 12 minutes – particularly with Bam Adebayo not carrying any of his Game 3 momentum into Game 4, and playing passive yet again.

With the Heat and Celtics both entering Game 5 with multiple major players already listed as either out or day-to-day (including Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker, among others), this Game 5 is likely going to come down to who can cobble together the healthiest starting roster, and which of their respective stars (between Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum) can take over the game early. 

Miami Heat

The upside for the Heat is that they did achieve the 1 seed this season, so if this series gets pushed to 7 games they’ll only have to go back to Boston one more time. With Game 5 in Miami tonight, they’ll likely look to come out and make a statement early, as two games in a row have been decided by dominant first quarters.

Game 4 was a bit of an aberration for the Heat, as they missed 15 of their first 16 shots, and were largely unable to slow the Celtics down on the defensive end.

With Butler only putting up 6 points in 27 minutes (and their starters only combining for 18 points across 5 players), the key for Miami will be to settle into the game much more quickly, even if that means slowing the game down heavily for the opening possessions.

If Butler and Lowry are healthy, I expect they’ll try to get Adebayo going early, as his dominance in the paint and from the mid-range is necessary for them to compete with the defensive prowess of the Celtics.

Boston Celtics

On the Celtics side of things, much is going to be reliant on the health & activity of Robert Williams and Marcus Smart – if they’re able to play heavy minutes, the defensive engine that is their team will be able to operate at close to max potential.

If they’re not, the Heat are going to be able to punish switches, and dominate inside (as the Heat showed in Game 3). While the Celtics still have two of the best scorers in this match-up in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they’re also far more prone for long stretches of turnover-heavy basketball and wasted possessions. When their defensive anchors aren’t on the court, they’re not able to get those possessions back on the other end leading to pretty stagnant play from them at times.

Assuming the Celtics have a healthy roster on the court tonight, I expect Game 5 to be far more of a slugfest than Games 3 and 4. While blowouts have been determined by first quarter performance more recently in these playoffs, the Heat and Celtics have too many hard-nosed, defense-oriented players for those outcomes to be a consistently reliable result. 

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Betting Pick: Heat Moneyline | +110 at Caesars

Game 4 was an embarrassing event for the Heat, they looked completely out of it from the opening tip – I expect Game 4 to have lit a fire under them, and the additional two days of rest to have helped Butler get his legs back.

With that in mind, and with the significant disparity in final scores so far this series, I’ll be taking the Heat moneyline, currently available for +110 at Caesars. There’s value in considering the spread, but in a series where only one game has had a less than double-digit margin of victory, a close final score doesn’t feel particularly likely. 

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Prediction

The Heat will take a 3-2 lead on their home court, 112-104.