Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Game 2 – Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions – May 19

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 2 Odds

The story of Game 1 of Celtics/Heat was a pretty straightforward one: Jimmy Butler continues to be one of the greatest playoff performers of the modern era, and the loss of Marcus Smart & Al Horford has a hugely detrimental effect on the Celtics defense. Both of these things could have been assumed going into start of this series, but watching it unfold in real time was eye-opening.

And that’s not to say the Celtics played a bad game; they outscored the Heat in three out of four quarters, by a collective 14 points. Unfortunately for Boston, they were beaten so thoroughly in the 3rd quarter (39 to 14) that they were forced to spend the entire 4th playing catch-up while Butler hit timely shot after timely shot to maintain the lead. 

Celtics vs. Heat Game 2 Betting Preview

Going into Game 2, the big questions will be ones of health: with Horford an almost guaranteed scratch, and Smart currently listed as day-to-day, the Celtics may continue to miss two of their most valuable options on offense and defense. And for the Heat, Kyle Lowry remains out with an existing hamstring strain – while the Heat have managed without him in the playoffs, they’re certainly missing his regular season production of 13.4/7.5/4.5 in 34 minutes a game. Without Lowry, Butler is forced to be the primary ball-handler for significant stretches, and while he’s up to the task, he’s also their primary scorer and primary wing defender – considering that he’s matched up against a team led by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, that’s a recipe for exhaustion and overwork the longer this series goes. 

Boston Celtics

For the Celtics, the big key will be to hide Payton Pritchard (assuming Smart remains out) in a way they weren’t able to in Game 1, and to reduce the physicality on Butler while ramping up the defense on his supporting pieces (particularly, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro).

Butler is almost guaranteed to get his points regardless, as he’s currently averaging 29.8/7.7/5.4 in 11 playoff games, but he took 19 shots & 18 free throws (more than the rest of his team combined) in Game 1. If you’re the Celtics, the goal has to be to limit Butler’s drives and to force him to be a jump shooter or to pass.

And on the Pritchard front: while his scoring is hugely important to a short-handed Celtics team, his defense simply isn’t ready for heavy minutes in an NBA playoff game, much less one against a team as well-coached as the Heat.

Of the 10 ball-screens that Gabe Vincent set on Tuesday night, 9 were in the fourth quarter and were designed to put Pritchard on Butler, with 10 of Butler’s 41 points coming in the 4th (on 4 of 6 shooting). If the Celtics want to avoid a 0-2 star to this series, they’ll need to slow Butler down, and they’ll need to hide their lesser defenders.

Miami Heat

For the Heat, not much should need to change for Game 2 – while they were outscored for three out of four quarters, those quarters were each close & competitive, and the differences in scores came down to a couple shots missed for the Heat vs a couple shots made for the Celtics.

As they always say, it’s a make-or-miss league, so those quarters easily could have gone the way of the Heat with some friendly bounces. And while much ado has been made about the huge number of free throws Butler took, the Heat actually shot 2 more (34 to 32) free throws than the Celtics – but they made them at a significantly higher clip (30 to 24).

If the Heat want to maintain their lead in this series, they’ll need to continue to heavily utilize Butler and Adebayo to combat the physicality of the Celtics starters.

With P.J. Tucker and DeWayne Dedmon essentially taking on defense-only roles to free up the rest of the team to play more active offense, the Heat have shown they can compensate efficiently for the more specialist-nature of some of their players and their overall style. 

Celtics vs. Heat Game 2 Betting Pick

With Horford out, and Smart only a possibility for Game 2, the Heat should be able to continue to push the Celtics into inopportune switches and blown defensive assignments. With that being the case, my official pick for Game 2 of Celtics/Heat is the Heat -2.5 – this is available for -130 with BetMGM.

Pick: Heat -2.5 | –130 at BetMGM

Celtics vs. Heat Game 2 Prediction

The Heat will win their second home game of this series and go up 2-0, behind a score of 114 – 108.