In the first of an NBA TV double header tonight, Friday March 25th, the Atlanta Hawks are hosting the Golden State Warriors.
This game doesn’t quite have the same excitement that it did in the pre-season, with the Hawks sitting at a disappointing 36-37 and the Warriors missing Steph Curry.
Because of the Curry injury, the Hawks actually find themselves favored in this game. They are 2 point favorites, with the total sitting at 220.5.
Starting with the home team- it’s hard not to be disappointed by the Hawks this season. They came into the season with somewhat realistic finals chances, having a young team that was two wins away from making the finals last year. But, instead they have been inconsistent and mediocre.
They just can’t seem to find their footing. They have legitimately impressive wins against the Grizzlies, then follow that up losing 2 of their next 3, with both losses being to teams below .500. Looking at their advanced analytics shows a perfectly mediocre team as well. They are currently 17th in net rating in the NBA and all the way down at 10th in the standings of a good Eastern Conference.
Trae Young has been awesome, but they haven’t gotten the development they were hoping with other younger players such as De’Andre Hunter, and they traded away other promising young wing in Cam Reddish.
The Warriors, on the other hand, are pretty locked into the 3 seed in the west but still have issues of their own- most notably health. After years of incredible luck and success, the Warriors have been snake bitten the last 3 seasons.
This had the look of the year in which we’d finally get to see the big 3 of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green on the floor together, but the basketball gods did not have it in the cards. Draymond was hurt when Klay made his return, and then right when Draymond returned Steph hurt his foot for pretty much the rest of the regular season.
This injury to Steph is exactly why a 48-25 juggernaut team is underdogs to this mediocre 36-37 team. Understandably so, as the Warriors are not the same team without Steph. They had a legitimately impressive win against the Heat in their last game, but the Heat seemingly now have problems of their own.
The key for the Warriors is going to be how their young studs step up. They are pleased with the development of rookies Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga, while 3rd year guard Jordan Poole has made a leap as well. He went from roughly 20 minutes and 12 points per game last year to 30 minutes and 17 points per game this year.
The Warriors have the potential to upset the Hawks if these 3 play well, but I’m going to take the Hawks to bounce back in this one. They seemingly win every other game, and since they are coming off a loss to the Pistons I’ll ride with their moneyline in this game.
My favorite player prop in this game is fading Klay Thompson points and taking his under 21.5 point total on BetRivers Sportsbook.
This one hurts because Klay is such a likable NBA superstar, but the unfortunate truth is that fading him in his return this year has been a relatively profitable venture. In 26 games, he has only his this total 5 times.
Even if you isolate the games to his last 10 in the argument that he is playing more minutes now than he was at the beginning of the year, he still has only gone over this total twice in that span.
Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors pick:
My official pick for this Hawks vs Warriors game is the Hawks moneyline. I bet this on PointsBet Sportsbook at -125 odds.
Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors Prediction: