UFC Fight Night: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak Odds, Picks & Predictions for Rescheduled Fight – Feb. 4, 2023

OddsJam’s UFC expert details his for Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak. Lock in this profitable line now and shop for the best line below! This fight was originally set for Nov. 22 but had to be rescheduled due to COVID-19.

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak Pick: Lewis Moneyline | +170 at DraftKings

Heavyweight  | Main Event | 10 p.m. ET

Nobody dulls sharp betting quite like Derrick Lewis. 

“Black Beast” roars after breaking the jaws of defeat many times. He goes out with a whimper against winnable matchups when favorable turns into fatigue or favoring his notoriously bad back. He’s one of the least-technical fighters in modern MMA, yet nobody’s refined tools built more knockout victories in UFC history. Even Daniel Cormier proclaimed Lewis was the hardest puncher he’s faced.

Bettors know what they could get with the fan favorite, but are unsure what they will get. Oddsmakers foresee a tough path to the slugging star’s uppercuts and counter rights landing Saturday. 

Sergey Spivak is a persistent, agile grappler looking to attack with ground strikes and submission opportunities after takedowns. The rising heavyweight imposed his will upon Augusto Sakai by outmuscling him and executing that exact game plan.

I advise any martial artist expecting to outpower “Black Beast” to try and convince the athletic commission to allow weapons to soften him up first. Lewis disregards legal jiu-jitsu techniques that would seemingly hamstring such an immensely irreverent ground grappler by literally just standing up from bottom position. The apathetic anomaly’s raw strength willed him to survive being toppled by Aleksei Oleinik — owner of 47 professional submission victories — and respected black belt under Renzo Gracie Roy Nelson.

Indifference turns into incapacitation when Lewis gets a chance to gain a dominant position to rain down some of the most gruesome ground and pound ever seen. The threat looms to the point of former Olympic wrestler and multi-division champion Cormier being the only person to rely on positional ground grappling to defeat Lewis.

Spivak demonstrated improved boxing guided by a nice use of his rangy 78-inch range. Defeating Lewis on the feet necessitates a strong chin, stronger patience to avoid counters or lunging, athletic bursts taking many heavyweights by surprise, and superior technicality. 

Mark Hunt and Junior Dos Santos crafted Hall of Fame combat careers off those attributes. Tai Tuivasa learned under the latter’s tutelage. Ciryll Gane wields more overall MMA striking ability than all three. Nobody else except Cormier managed to tame “Black Beast” in his last 20 fights except Sergi Pavlovich after an early stoppage. Spivak’s skills fail to warrant inclusion in that exclusive club.

Furthermore, Spivak’s past performances denote trouble against explosive striking. Walt Harris barraged the debuting youngster en route to a knockout victory earned in under a minute. Marcin Tybura bulldozed Spivak two years ago. Tom Aspinall isn’t known for overwhelming striking, yet landed a flush elbow marking the beginning of a first-round end.

Mix every ingredient together and this fight creates a classic recipe for underdog success. 

Power is the last thing to go. Every time matchmakers and oddsmakers alike believe “Black Beast” is poised to finally cease as a contender, power shots flip predators into prey as “Black Beast” celebrates his latest victimization with his gorilla pounce and an even more memorable victory speech.