UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions – May 21, 2022
Joseph Holmes vs. Alen Amedovski Pick: Holmes Moneyline | -195 at DraftKings
Preliminary Card | Middleweight
Flying into the mid-card, we are treated to Amedovski vs. Joseph “Ugly Man” Holmes.
Old school UFC fanatics will remember the name Amedovski as the player who got 60-seconded by John Phillips — the white Mike Tyson — in Copenhagen.
After a tremendous effort his last time around, he is looking to right that wrong as well as finally achieve that elusive first octagon victory.
Joseph Holmes is in a similar conundrum, albeit less violent, where he is also searching for his big break in the promotion and subsequently moving himself up the title ranks for better or for worse.
Holmes will possess a 6-foot-3 height advantage over the relatively unimposing 5-foot-10 Amedovski. His Jon Jones-esque reach will also prove to cause some issues for his adversary, were the lanky frame can be utilized to great effect getting in and out of the pocket or other nefarious striking situations.
With all the brass tax gotten through and the fight just around the corner, who is to emerge from the cage victorious and on an upward trajectory?
For starters, Holmes just fought as early as a few months ago. Losing effort or not that is already triple the cage time of Amedovskis last showing and in a more recent frame of time, as the Italian bruiser’s contest was way back in 2019.
Secondly, Holmes above all the physical attributes is going to possess something that Amedovski is clearly lacking at least historically anyways: proper fight IQ.
The Neanderthal from Naples seems to get highly agitated and subsequently bull rushes his competition whenever he gets tagged lightly or challenged vehemently.
If he does the same such behavior in the octagon with Holmes, expect a gruesome finish nine times out of 10.
At the end of the day due to the multiple wide arrays of circumstantial evidence, I really believe you have to side with Joseph Holmes to not only win but decimate in spectacular fashion.
Parker Porter vs. Jailton Almeida Pick: Almeida Under 1.5 Rounds | -165 at DraftKings
Preliminary Card | Heavyweight
In perhaps one of the most bizarre pairings in recent memory, Jailton “The Bona-fide Brazillian” Almeida goes toe-to-toe with Parker “Porker” Porter.
Words cannot describe how funny this matchup is. On one side of the spectrum, you have Almeida looking like a bronzed Greek God. On the other side, you have love handles and pork rinds for days in Porter.
Although Almeida is making his UFC heavyweight debut, expect him to be the bigger presence as his 6-foot-3 stature is going to absolutely dwarf the 6-foot-0 merchant that is Porker.
He is also going to have the grappling know-how that Porter can only dream of. To be frank, I was rather unimpressed with Porter’s grappling in his last go of it.
He could barely get it to the mat and that makes me question his ability to survive in this bout against a Brazilian powerhouse who lives and breathes ground and pound.
When the cows come home and the roosters hatch, who takes home the bacon on Saturday?
Seeing that Almeida is approaching -800, that’s not the play here. What I do see is a quick finish by our Brazilian bombshell, so elect to play the under with a sizable cut down the juice.
This simultaneously secures the bag, as well as covers for some freak accident in the event Almeida stubs his big toe or something. Death, taxes and Almeida inside 60 seconds.
Chase Hooper vs. Felipe Colares Pick: Colares Moneyline | -170 at DraftKings
Preliminary Card | Featherweight
What we have here is a clash of smaller gentlemen as Felipe “Hombre” Colares goes up against Chase “Hopper App” Hooper.
Although Colares is only 28 and at the prime of his powers, he is still going to hold seven years over one of the youngest prospects in the UFC in Hooper.
He will assume the mantle here as the more experienced grizzled vet, but it will be Chase who sports significant physical attributes — and of course has the youth component in his back pocket.
Hooper primarily relies on his grappling to get the job done in his previous affairs but seems to lack any real offensive wrestling to get his opponents to the mat.
Colares is an offensive marauder who possesses a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and throws caution to the wind when it comes to getting the distance closed and the opponent gassed.
It will be interesting to see who can implement their own fighting style while simultaneously avoiding each other’s win condition.
But when it’s all said and done, who takes it?
Colares seems to be the better overall fighter when you look at it analytically. Yes he’s lacking some length but he seems like the more Rabid Dog of the two, willing to put himself in the fire and dig deep in order to secure the bag.
Chase has shown a lack of stand-up on the feet and the aforementioned takedown threat to get the fight where he wants.
I don’t believe he is going to magically develop a strong wrestling game overnight, and due to that I have to side with Colares as currently he is the more well rounded and proven combat athlete.
He may not be the person with the more upside in the future, but he is the right move in the current moment. Give me the Colares moneyline like I need air.
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