UFC 285 Predictions: Moneyline Bets Including Jon Jones vs. Cyril Gane on Saturday, March 4

Absence makes the heart grow larger for Jon Jones. The light heavyweight kingpin jumps to the land of giants for the first time against former interim champion Cyril Gane at UFC 285. New heavyweight opportunities hold heavier potential for the heaviest profits.

Jon Jones vs. Cyril Gane Pick: Gane Moneyline | Shop for the Best Odds Below!

Heavyweight Championship | Main Event | 10 p.m. ET

Jon Jones stretches his 84-inch reach constantly in the Octagon. Bulking a wiry frame to heavyweight to combat Gane for the first fight in over three years screams overextending worse than Jones’ many victims of egregious eye pokes. 

Past performance fails to guarantee future results, but it succeeds in causing concern. Almost every public media outlet scored Jones’ last fight against now-diminished Dominic Reyes in the challenger’s favor. Jones eeked out a controversial decision after having extreme difficulty with Reyes’ comparable range and uppercut usage. 

Thiago Santos provided a close challenge on the feet, despite suffering knee injuries in the first round that ended up a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus. He’s proven to be an uneven fighter since then.

Conversely, Gane cruised through UFC knockouts leader Derrick Lewis and Alexander Volkov. Top-5 contender Tai Tuivasa sparked a smoldering slugfest in his last fight, but Gane returned fire and got the finish. 

Francis Ngannou’s ability to outwrestle Gane on one stable leg blemishes the otherwise-perfect picture. Jones rag-dolled former Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier in their first fight at 205 pounds. 

Hellbows rain on the puncher’s parade when a fight hits the former champ’s canvas. Gange made unforced errors in ground defense against Ngannou, whose ground game is considerably less-polished than Jones’s. The polarizing dynamo who has never lost outside of a controversial decision maneuvers to victory oftentimes not by physical prowess, but by brilliant adjustments.

Logic reasons that Gane wasn’t prepared to engage in such a grappling grind against MMA’s embodiment of the One-Punch Man. Speaking of preparation, Jones hasn’t replicated his anime-esque dominance over opponents when “clean,” as we presume he’s fighting here. 

Jones remained in the USADA testing pool while inactive, but his physique/condition plays a huge factor in this literally massive contest. We’ve never seen a 230-pound Jones in competition, but we know he is extremely top-heavy. Chicken legs make a tasty target for Gane’s notorious leg kicks to chew up.

We also have no idea if Jones can eat heavyweight haymakers when strikes move north to the head and jaw. That said, Jones displayed an all-time chin at 205.

Similarly slender Israel Adesanya learned a lesson in power differences when he recently moved up and found larger life more difficult when having to respect the Polish Power of Jan Błachowicz on the feet and the canvas. Middleweight to light heavyweight marks a 20-pound difference. Cyril Gane typically fights around 40 pounds heavier than the 205 weight limit.

Walt Harris, Maurice Greene, and Yorgan De Castro combine gatekeeper experiences to open the door to Jones experiencing heavyweight combat in sparring. Harris explodes in bursts opposite of Gane’s style, Greene endangers with sneaky submissions, and the latter won 1 UFC contest out of 4. 

Simply put: Jones enters uncharted territory Saturday. I understand the oddsmaker’s thought process in banking on his pedigree, grappling prowess in the ugly face of Gane’s last title fight, and the buzz around training footage. 

However, unless the notable heavyweight newbie can get and keep down a presumably prepared and considerably heavier Gane heading into the later stages of live betting, don’t put your money where Jones’ mouth is.

Valentina Shevchenko (c) vs. Alexa Grasso Pick: Shevchenko Moneyline | Shop for the Best Odds Below!

Women’s Flyweight Championship | Co-Main | 7 p.m. ET

Newer bettors might wonder what makes Valentina Shevchenko so good and such a heavy favorite. 

“Bullet” fires lethal strikes from difficult angles with precision. A sterling kickboxing record and multiple gold medals in global Muay Thai competitions equipped Schevchenko with a deadly arsenal before she even stepped foot into the Octagon she usually dominates when WMMA GOAT Amanda Nunes doesn’t enter it.

Taila Santos dragged the women’s flyweight champ to deep, dangerous waters with strong takedowns and trips that leveraged her size advantage. Schevchenko leaned on her superior experience and technique to control the feisty challenger from the bottom. The fight and split decision disillusioned fans believing Santos “won.”

That wasn’t the case at UFC 275 and won’t be at 280. Alexa Grasso relinquishes a bit of size here, unlike the enduring champion’s last opponent.