UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad Betting Picks, Odds, & Predictions – April 16th, 2022

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OddsJam StaffMarch 31, 2022 at 08:30 PM

On April 16th, we have the UFC Fight Night of Luque vs. Muhammad (part 2). This Fight Night is taking place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Muhammad

A handful of online sportsbooks in the United States have already started to post UFC odds for the April 16th Fight Night, and I’m going to take you through my best bets, picks and predictions.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Mounir Lazzez Pick & Prediction

The first UFC fight I zoned in on for April 16th is Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Mounir Lazzez. This is a welterweight matchup between two elite strikers.

Mounir Lazzez has a 10-2 record since entering the UFC. He has 8 wins by knockout and 2 wins by decision. 

Lazzez has 56% striking accuracy, with 100 significant strikes landed out of 179 attempted. Although he doesn’t grapple frequently, Lazzez is also 4/4 on attempted takedowns.

Elizeu dos Santos, on the other hand, has a 23-7 record, with 14 wins by knockout and 3 wins by submission. 

He has slightly worse striking accuracy at 42% (677 strikes landed vs 1604 attempted). His grappling accuracy is fairly weak, however, with 15% accuracy (2 takedowns landed vs 33 attempted).
All UFC odds can be found on the OddsJam MMA odds page. As seen, DraftKings is currently offering the best moneyline price on dos Santos at -195 odds. FanDuel is offering the best odds on Lazzez at +184.

Line movement initially started ripping towards Mounir Lazzez after UFC betting markets opened for the fights on 4/16. 

I really like the value in Lazzez +184 moneyline odds at FanDuel, so I locked it in. My UFC bet is below.

I found this UFC pick on the OddsJam Positive EV sports betting software

Lazzez is a powerful and elite striker, and my prediction is that he wins this fight by TKO, most likely in the second round. 

Being able to get +184 moneyline odds is incredible value, and the sports betting math supports this bet.

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Muhammad Free Pick: 

My free pick for UFC Fight Night (April 16) is Mounir Lazzez moneyline at +184 odds on FanDuel.

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Muhammad Prediction: 

My prediction for UFC Fight Night (April 16) is that Lazzez will win by TKO in the second round

I’ll also be looking to place a UFC prop bet on Lazzez TKO once sportsbooks post prop odds.

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