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UFC 283 Predictions: 3 Main Card Bets, Feat. Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill – Jan. 21

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

UFC 283 rings in the new year by raining down punches. OddsJam resolves to help you gain fistfuls of betting dollars starting Saturday night. 

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Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill  Pick: Glover Teixeira Moneyline | +110 at DraftKings

Light Heavyweight Championship | Main Event  | Start time: 12:30 a.m. ET

Youth continues its everlasting battle against experience during Saturday’s main event. 

Jamahal Hill represents the future well by exerting heavy-duty energy for a light-heavyweight. A historical volume of 5.81 strikes per minute places third all-time among the UFC’s second-largest division. Jolting power combines with the lightning output to create five electric finishes out of seven Octagon bouts.

Glover Teixeira’s dated striking style invites plenty of opportunities to catch Hill’s quick hands. The former champion forges ahead in a rudimentary high guard without evasive movements. An iron chin and titanium will allows the spectacular ground grappler to trade punches for takedown positioning. Only Anthony “Rumble” Johnson — one of the deadliest knockout artists in UFC history — and prime Alexander Gustafsson fueled by extra motivation from fighting in front of his home country Sweden have managed to knock out the grizzled vet in 20 years.

When Teixeira gets the chance to slip inside, strikes will almost always go to the head. The tried-and-true throwdown sequence follows starting with an overhand right or cross counter and following up successful strikes with a left hook. 

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There’s nothing flashy in combat or cameras about the battle-tested striking scheme. However, opponents’ lives will flash in front of their panicked eyes when fights hit the ground. Texeira has found more finishes there than any light heavyweight in UFC history. Staying slow and steady wins the submission race. The Brazilian bringer of patient, positional pain owns the divisional record for top control time as well.

The power required to build the humbling grip needed to etch that history acquires a rare knack to successfully shoot on opponents without a wrestler’s form or technical fluidity. Texieria’s last title fight against elite, eccentric kickboxer Jiri Provchavka sent a clear message that the 43-year-old’s gritty game isn’t pretty, Nearly 10 minutes of control time derived from 5 takedowns that would’ve won the elite elder the fight if he hadn’t gassed after an ill-fated flying guillotine.

Hill defends takedowns at a reasonable rate of 65 percent. All attempts came from the unsure hands of gatekeepers either firmly on the decline or never on the rise. Teixeira stands as by far the toughest test Hill has taken inside the Octagon.

I look for the tenured former champ to school his upstart opponent while respecting the fact that a vicious shot could ring the 43-year-old’s bell early to dismiss the fight. 

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Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Pick: Figueiredo Moneyline  | +102 at FanDuel

Flyweight Championship | Co-Main  | Main Card Start Time 10 p.m. ET

Sportsbooks and sports fans appreciate the closeness of this fourth fight between champion and challenger. The action evened out to Saturday’s co-main event being the first time fighters have faced each other four times in the Octagon.

The tale of the tape shows the height and reach are nearly equal. Brandon Moreno yields some success while Deiveson Figueiredo surrenders a bit of overall fight experience. 

The tale of the trilogy is that of two warriors taking each other’s best shots and submissions in epic, seesaw struggles. Each tasted victory once. The first fight between the two resulted in a controversial draw many felt Moreno won, though it’s worth noting weight cut side effects hospitalized Figueiredo the night before.

Who is the better fighter remains undetermined, but Figueredo is clearly the physically stronger fighter. Muscle requires oxygen and steep weight cuts require energy, giving Moreno a decisive cardio advantage. He also weaponizes a wrestling advantage. Figueiredo switched camps to work with a star-studded wrestling squad that includes arguably MMA’s greatest Henry Cejudo. The move appeared to have paid off during the last fight Figueiredo edged.

I advise looking for better betting options for Saturday’s action. Figueiredo’s path to victory offers slightly less resistance and he has a bit more value.

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Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny  Pick: Burns Moneyline  | -460 at DraftKings

Welterweight | Main Card  | 10 p.m. ET

Neil Magny is good, but Gilbert Burns flirts with greatness. Magny’s endless reach and cardio tempts bettors looking for an underdog rush. His ugliness on the ground against credentialed grapplers turns a ten into a two on the profitability scale. 

Wisdom mandates including Burns in any roll call of rare grapplers. Even arrogant wrestler-mauler Khazmat Chimaev refused to engage much with the Brazilian jiu-jitsu icon in that area.

The fan and future title favorite absorbed 115 strikes against Burns, whereas he only got hit twice in four prior bouts combined. Boxing shots pop with power. Anyone thinks twice about closing in with underhooks and turning fights into close-quartered wars of attrition that Magny loves to start. An overhand counter even rocked former welterweight ruler Kamaru Usman.

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