MLB Best Bet – August 14, 2022
Detroit Tigers (43-72) vs. Chicago White Sox (58-56)
2:10 p.m. ET
While Lance Lynn is having a really tough season, it is hard to remember he is not that far removed from being a terrific pitcher. Just last season he had a 2.69 ERA, and has a 3.57 career ERA. Perhaps age has caught up to him, or perhaps it has taken some time to trust his knee again after surgery.
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I am not suggesting a full turn around, but I think he is worth keeping an eye on the rest of the season. I am not entirely convinced Lance is done being an effective pitcher. He has back to back solid starts so far in August and gets a chance to build on them vs one of the league’s worst offenses.
I will say, if this was an away game for the Sox I would not have considered. However, this game will be played in southside and there are some glaring differences in home and away numbers:
Home ERA: 4.72
Away ERA: 7.46
Home K: 39 K in 34.1 innings
Away K: 23 K in 25.1 innings
Home opponent BA: .224
Away opponent BA: .324
It is worth stating this is an 11 game sample size (6 at home), but you would find similar trends in home/away splits last season too. It is apparent Lance is far more comfortable pitching at home.
Regardless of ERA, Lance is still picking up strikeouts. He has 62 in 69.2 innings and has 7+ K in 3/6 starts at home. He is above average in many strikeout stats: 57th percentile in K per innings, 60th in swinging strike percentage, 59th in K rate, and 62nd in whiff rate. He appears to be getting stronger as K rate over the last 30 days is 28.2%, a big jump from his season long K rate of 23.8%.
Detroit is a terrific matchup for Lynn. He has really struggled to keep the ball in the yard, and today he faces the team dead last in home runs. Detroit averages the 9th most K per game overall, but have a significant jump to 3rd most on the road. They are averaging 14 K per game over the last 3 games. They have been getting torched by RHP. They have the league’s worst K rate over the last 30 days vs RHP at 29.2%. Their K rate in away games this season is 26.7% and in day games is 24.9%.
If Lance Lynn wants to turn his season around, today is the day to do it.
Tigers vs. White Sox Prop Pick: Lance Lynn 7+ strikeouts | +130 at FanDuel