Sharp MLB Picks for Wednesday: 4 Best MLB Bets for September 21, Including Blue Jays vs. Phillies

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Andrew CunninghamSeptember 21, 2022 at 04:15 PM

It was a bit of a disappointing day yesterday; it doesn’t help that one of our bets was voided and refunded. We’ll look to get back on track today with four of our bets being in play.

Units RiskedUnits Gained
4-3
Check Out How to Calculate Unit Size Below

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Pick: 1U Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 Ks | -110 at FanDuel

6:45 p.m. ET

Let’s just dig right in to this one. Zack Wheeler is a phenomenal pitcher. In his last 10 starts, he has only not gone above 5 strikeouts once. If you don’t want to do the math, Wheeler throws 5+ Ks 90% of the time. The one time he didn’t throw five, he threw four. Wheeler is the model of consistency and I’m putting 1 unit on him to throw 5+ Ks.

Player Strikeouts

Yankees vs. Pirates Pick: 1U Roansy Contreras Over 3.5 Ks | -115 at BetMGM

7:05 p.m. ET

Roansy Contreras is going to face off against a New York Yankees team that boasts a stellar lineup and, of course, the terror that is Aaron Judge. However, New York sits right in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout percentage. Contreras has proven many times over the course of the season he can throw for Ks. Look for him to continue the trend tonight.

Player Strikeouts

Yankees vs. Pirates Pick: 1U Yankees -1.5 | -129 at BetRivers

7:05 p.m. ET

Contreras may throw for 4 Ks tonight, but that doesn’t make this game any easier for the Pirates to win. Last night the Yankees barely edged out the Pirates for a 1 run victory. Look for the Yankees to establish who the better team is tonight.

Orioles vs. Tigers Pick: 1U Orioles Moneyline | -155 at DraftKings

7:05 p.m. ET

This one doesn’t take much explaining. The Orioles are the Cinderella team of the season and they are going up against a rebuilding Tigers team. Look for the Orioles to take care of business here.

Moneyline

Bet Slips for Today

Sharp MLB Picks for Wednesday: 4 Best MLB Bets for September 21, Including Blue Jays vs. Phillies
Sharp MLB Picks for Wednesday: 4 Best MLB Bets for September 21, Including Blue Jays vs. Phillies
Sharp MLB Picks for Wednesday: 4 Best MLB Bets for September 21, Including Blue Jays vs. Phillies
Sharp MLB Picks for Wednesday: 4 Best MLB Bets for September 21, Including Blue Jays vs. Phillies

How do I Calculate my Unit Size?

For the most basic bettors, it’s advisable to make your units about 1% of your bankroll, and certainly not more than 2%. So a bettor with a $5,000 bankroll should have units of about $50. That doesn’t mean every bet has to be $50, but it’s the starting point to base your bet sizes on.

There are many strategies for managing your bankroll, but if you are simply betting for some entertainment or have the tiniest of edges, you may place half a unit on a bet, or $25. A base bet would be $50, and then for plays you love and see a bigger edge in you might go to 2% or 3% of your bankroll, which would be two or three units.

A good way to calculate how many units to put on a bet is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a system that bases the amount of your bankroll to put on each bet based on the odds given, and the fair win probability of the bet. You can use OddsJam’s Kelly Criterion Calculator to find your ideal bet size using this method.

Using this calculator, say there’s a bet with a 55% chance of winning and you’re able to get -110 odds. With the Kelly Multiplier set at one, it tells you to risk 5.5% of your bankroll on that one bet. Most bettors aren’t comfortable risking that much of their bankroll at a time, so feel free to set the Kelly multiplier at a fraction of one that you are more comfortable with.

When using the Kelly Criterion calculator, whatever you decide on just remember to always keep the Kelly multiplier consistent across all your bets.

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