Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today – August 5, 2022: Fading MadBum on the Mound Tonight

MLB Best Bet – August 5, 2022

Colorado Rockies (47-61) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (46-58) 

9:41 p.m. ET

It always catches my eye when the Rockies face a left handed pitcher. While it is certainly a better idea to back their offense at home, I like them to have some success and make contact vs Madison Bumgarner. 

Madison is enjoying somewhat of a resurgence at age 33. He struggled mightily in his first 2 seasons in Ari, but has a respectable 3.83 ERA this year. While his ERA has gone down this season, so has his K rate. 

After a 20.2% K rate last year and a 23.0% for his career, it has dropped to 16.4% in 2022. Over the last 30 days, it has gone down even more to 15.7%. He has 78 K in 110.1 innings so far this season (0.71 K per inning). While his K per inning jumps slightly to 0.76 per inning at home, he only gets 0.57 K per inning during night games.

Madison is in the 12th percentile in K rate, 4th percentile in whiff rate, and 23rd percentile in whiff rate. Over the last 30 days, he has only struck out 14.1% of the right handed batters he has faced. That will be a large factor tonight.

Colorado likes to throw out a very right handed heavy lineup, and could see as many as 7 tonight. For that reason, they have given LHP trouble most of the season. Vs LHP, they lead the league in average, 4th in on base %, 7th in slugging, and 5th in OPS. As far as K, they are the 5th toughest team in the league vs lefties.

Their K rate is only 19.4%. They also have quite a bit of experience vs Madison. Current Rockies have 153 plate appearances against him, and while they only have a .242 average against him, they only have 28 K (18.3% K rate). I do not see Madison having enough swing and miss stuff vs this offense, and like him to have less than 5 strikeouts.

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Prop Pick: Madison Bumgarner under 4.5 strikeouts | -116 at FanDuel