Quick reminder, you will find this line under “first half”. From there you will go to “1st half run line / Total runs parlay”. We hit on one of these last week, and I will try my hand at this market again at this value.
After arguably the most boring night of the MLB season where only one game went over, I am desperate for offense. Look no further than the Rangers and Rockies at Coors field. This game has shoot-out written all over it, so let’s get in on the action.
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As I am sure you know, Coors field sits over 5,000 feet above sea level. That is about 5 times higher than Chase Field which is the next highest elevation for an MLB stadium. The effects of this have been well documented for a long time. Your standard fly ball travels about 30 feet further through the thin air at Coors, which leads to a hitter’s dream and a pitcher’s nightmare. Luckily for us tonight, we have 2 pitchers on the mound who give up plenty of runs.
Let’s start on the Colorado side. German Marquez has been crushed all season long. His 5.05 ERA rises to 5.85 at home. He allows opposing batters a .307 average at home. He sits in the 7th percentile in average exit velocity, 3rd percentile in hard-hit rate, 15th percentile in xBA, and 17th percentile in xSLG.
Dane Dunning has had an ok season but is certainly a different pitcher away from home. He has an 0-5 record and a 5.08 ERA in 11 away starts. Opposing batters have hit .301 vs him in away appearances. While his percentiles are nowhere near as poor as German’s, he is below average in many. He is in the 57th percentile in hard hit percentage, 43 in xBA, 50th in xSLG, 31st in K rate, and 29th in BB rate. He struggles with his control and does not miss many bats. That is a tough recipe for success for a below-average pitcher at Coors field.
German is going to give up runs and to get the over 5.5 we will need him to. What this will come down to is Colorado’s offense. In theory, they start with a 1-0 when we get the +1.5 run line, and I think this offense can keep up with Texas. At home, they average the most runs per game, the best batting average, the best on-base percentage, 2nd highest slugging percentage, and the best OPS.
This should be a really fun game. Let’s hope for a shootout, ideally led by the explosive Colorado offense.
Rangers vs. Rockies Pick: Colorado Rockies +1.5 / over 5.5 | +170 at Fanduel
