Phillies vs. Pirates Player Prop Bets Today – July 28, 2022: Wheeling and Dealing On the Mound?

Philadelphia Phillies (51-47) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (40-58) Prop Bets

7:05 p.m. ET

I did not want to write another article about Zack Wheeler…. Actually, yes I did. I am sure you have noticed, I am quite the believer in Wheeler, so I have to attack this Pirates matchup. 

Zack is in a bit of a lull with strikeouts. He has 5, 5, 4, and 6 K in his last 4 starts. I know sometimes backing a guy who has gone under in 4 straight can be a little unsettling, but sometimes it does us a favor. It makes the books set lower lines, and creates chances like we see today. Had Zack been on a good stretch like he was earlier in the season where he had 7+ in 10/11 games, we would likely see a 7.5 line. It’s a classic buy low scenario today. 

Despite the “down stretch”, Wheeler is still pitching incredibly. He has had some brutal matchups in July, and he has managed a 2.45 ERA in the 4 starts and only allowed 22 base runners in 25.2 innings. Toronto hit him well he 6 earned in 4.2 innings, in the other 3 starts he pitched 21 innings with only 1 earned. He should give this Pittsburgh offense fits today. 

Zack’s season long K stats are terrific. He is in the 62nd percentile in K per inning, 62nd percentile in swinging strike percentage, 74th percentile in K rate, 54th percentile in whiff rate, and 91st percentile in chase rate. He has a  pitch arsenal, and 4 of those pitches generate swings and misses at a high rate. 

Pittsburgh has been a fun team to target. This offense is so young and full of low contact batters. They have the 2nd worst K rate vs RHP pitching this season. They are averaging 9.7 K over their last 10 games with a 26.4% K rate. They have the 2nd worst contact rate on chased pitches, a notable stat vs a guy in the 91st percentile in chase rate.

An odd thing about the Pirates is they swing at the least amount of pitches in the league. That could be a dangerous strategy vs Wheeler who has terrific control. He should spend all day ahead in the count, and be able to whip out batters on nasty pitches outside the zone. I love him to get 7+ K today.

Royals vs. Yankees Pick: Zack Wheeler over 6.5 strikeouts | +110 at FanDuel Sportsbook