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He wanted to return as soon as possible, and all in all this start was only pushed back one day. I do not have workload concerns, and while this is not a perfect science, DraftKings having his O/U for outs at 18.5 tells me they do not have any either.
Joe will try to continue his case for the NL Cy Young. Joe has been an effective pitcher for several years, but seems to have put it all together this season. He is 8-0 with a 1.59 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.
His strikeouts have been very consistent as well. While I do not value hit rates for props like other bettors may, his are too good to not speak on. He is over 5.5 in 9 of 11 starts and 4 of 4 in home games. He is averaging 6.6 strikeouts per start. At home he has 36 K in 32 innings, good for 1.13 per inning, an uptick from the 0.96 he has averaged on the road.
He currently sits in the 62nd percentile in whiff %, 73rd percentile in K%, and 83rd percentile in chase rate. He has a 6 pitch arsenal that keeps hitters, featuring a slider with a 38.6% whiff rate and a curve that has a 34.8% whiff rate.
The Phillies are a middle of the pack target for K but they chase a lot of pitches which should work to Joe’s advantage. They chase the 7th highest percentage of pitches and in career matchups, Joe has terrific numbers:
- Castellanos: 7 K in 15 at bats
- Schwarber: 8 K in 13 at bats
- Harper: 6 K in 12 at bats
- Realmuto: 3 K in 9 at bats
- Hoskins: 3 K in 6 at bats
I like Joe to take advantage of a pretty cold lineup tonight and pick up 6+ strikeouts.
Phillies vs. Padres Pick: Joe Musgrove over 5.5 strikeouts | -145 at DraftKings
