Nationals vs. Rangers Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions Today – June 24, 2022

Ready to lock in your MLB bets? OddsJam’s MLB expert breaks down his top pick and prediction for today’s slate. Find the run line bet @BalesSJustin is eyeing below.

Nationals vs. Rangers Betting Pick: -1.5 Run Line | +134 at FanDuel

8:05 p.m. ET

The Texas Rangers host the Washington Nationals at Choctaw Stadium tonight. We have a relatively interesting matchup everywhere besides the starting pitchers. That is where we get the massive edge. 

Dane Dunning will draw the start for Texas. He’s seen mixed results throughout the season, posting a 1-5 record with a 4.38 ERA through 14 starts.

He’s due for some positive regression, as he also boasts a 3.82 xFIP through 76 innings. Dunning’s a pitcher that can get out of tough situations with a reasonable strikeout rate and a ground ball rate north of 50% this season. 

This isn’t why we’re backing him, though. The young right-hander has some of the biggest splits in the entire league. His strikeout rate jumps to 25.5% at home as opposed to 17% on the road. His walk rate also drops slightly, while his average (.195) and WHIP (0.98) are drastically lower in Texas.

Most importantly, his 3.02 home ERA is backed by a dominant 3.22 home xFIP. Dunning is a significantly better pitcher in Texas, giving him a massive advantage on the mound tonight. 

On the other side, Paolo Espino will draw the start for Washington. He’s thrown well through 22 games (two starts) in 2022, posting an 0-1 record with a 2.29 ERA. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, as he also owns a 4.16 xFIP this season. 

Espino has struggled in limited starts this season, as his xFIP jumps to 4.43 in his starts. He also posted an individual xFIP over 4 in both of those games. He isn’t a pitcher that has massive splits, though, as his xFIP stays similar at home or on the road and against either handedness.

Ultimately, it’s his overall regression that we’re looking to attack tonight. 

These pitchers going in opposite directions are the clear reason for this play. With that being said, Texas does have somewhat of a small edge everywhere in this game. 

The Rangers don’t boast an overly dominant offense, but they do come with some upside. They own a .321 wOBA over the last 14 days, which ranks 14th in MLB. Texas also ranks 12th in the league in ISO (.171) over that span.

The only major concern here is that they’ve struggled mightily against right-handed pitching, posting a .665 OPS against that handedness this season. 

Although the Rangers have struggled to produce runs this season, the Nationals haven’t been much better. They do own a .692 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Washington owns a .317 team wOBA over the last 14 days. They struggle a bit with power, though, as they own a .160 ISO over that span. 

Both teams have struggled at times with their bullpens throughout the season. There is a slight edge for Texas, though. They boast a relatively average 4.01 bullpen xFIP over the last 30 days, while Washington has posted a 4.40 xFIP over that span. 

These teams are also on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of the run line. Texas has covered the run line at the second-best rate (60.3%) in the MLB this season. Washington, on the other hand, has covered the run line at the lowest rate (40.3%) in the league. 

The Rangers have also found plenty of run line success at home. They’ve struggled a bit as favorites, which is a concern, but this is as much about fading the Nationals as it is about playing the Rangers. Washington’s struggled on the road and as underdogs throughout the season. 

It’s tough to fully trust the Rangers offense at this point, but they have such a big edge with their starting pitcher that I’m willing to make the bet for these odds.