There is going to be quite a bit of variance in this game with the starters and bullpens. These odds are too good to pass up, though.
We’re getting -130 odds on the team with the better starting pitcher, bullpen and offense. Let’s break this down by each specific matchup.
This game will be played in Baltimore tonight. The Orioles aren’t a great team by any stretch, but they are significantly better at home. Overall, they boast a 17-16 home record compared to a 13-22 record on the road. They’re also 6-4 over their last 10 games.
On the other side, the Nationals have struggled everywhere. They own a 12-20 road record in 2022 to go along with a 12-26 home record. They’re also only 2-8 over their last 10 games, which is tied for the worst record in MLB over that span.
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Jordan Lyles isn’t a pitcher to write home about, but he’s due for some positive regression. He owns a 5.10 ERA with a 4.23 xFIP, suggesting he’s throwing roughly 1 ER better than he’s posted thus far.
His .342 BABIP is also unsustainably high, and it should drop as the season progresses. As if that isn’t enough, Lyles’ xFIP dips to 3.79 in Baltimore, and he should continue to find success at home.
Erick Fedde has also struggled this season, posting a 4.88 ERA with a 4.52 xFIP through 13 starts. Similar to Lyles, his BABIP (.317) is slightly higher, although it isn’t unsustainable for the struggling right-hander.
The key here is that Fedde’s xFIP jumps to 5.12 on the road in 2022. He’s had some difficult road matchups this season, but he’s struggled in each of his last four games with an xFIP pushing 5 or higher in each game.
Baltimore’s offense has quietly been playing well in recent games. They rank ninth in the league in team wOBA (.329) and third in ISO (.204) over the last 14 days.
The Orioles aren’t an overly dominant offense against right-handed pitching, ranking 21st in MLB in OPS (.678). With that being said, they do come with some power, and the matchup against Fedde will help drastically.
Washington has featured an average offense over the last 14 days. They rank 15th in team wOBA (.312) over that span. More importantly, they rank 20th in ISO (.146) in those games.
The Nationals rank slightly better than Baltimore in OPS (.695) against right-handed pitching this season. The big difference is the power. The Nationals rank 25th in ISO (.133), and they haven’t found ways to consistently feature power the way Baltimore has.
There isn’t truly all that much to say about the bullpens. Baltimore’s bullpen has seen mixed results over the last 30 days. They aren’t good by any stretch, but they also aren’t near the bottom of the league.
Over that same span, Washington’s bullpen has struggled quite a bit. They rank second-to-last on this slate in xFIP (4.55).
Ultimately, we’re paying a little bit of juice to get the better offense, better starter and better bullpen at home. It seems like a no-brainer — especially with Lyles being due for some positive regression.
Normally, I don’t love paying this much juice on any play, but I’m making the exception for Baltimore tonight.