Miami Marlins (33-40) @ St. Louis Cardinals (43-34)
7:46 p.m. ET
The Cardinals are not a team I have targeted often over the last few seasons, but there are some interesting trends that convinced me to back Sandy in this one.
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I will start off with the Cardinals recent struggles making contact. The Cardinals have played 15 games over the last 15 days, which perhaps has led to some tired swings. In that span, the Cardinals have the 3rd most strikeouts with 135 (9 per game). They have a 24.5% K rate in this span as well.
Secondly, Sandy always seems to step up his game vs the Cardinals. The Cardinals were the first MLB team to sign him as an international free agent back in 2013. Alcantara played the majority of his minor league career with the Cards before being the key piece in a deal that sent Marcell Ozuna to St Louis and Sandy to Miami. If I remember that, you better believe Sandy does as well. In his 4 career starts vs his first team, he has been terrific with only 3 earned runs in 27.1 innings and had 6, 10, 7, and 6 strikeouts.
Alcantara is one of my favorite pitchers to bet on. He is not an elite strikeout guy, but he is the definition of a workhorse in today’s MLB. He has thrown 100+ pitches in 8 of his last 11 starts and has thrown 94+ pitches in every start except his first start of the season. He is one of the league’s most efficient inning eaters which gives him opportunities to cash over props that most pitchers do not get.
I mentioned he is not an elite strikeout guy, but he is damn good. He is in the 55th percentile in K rate, 57th percentile in whiff%, 86th percentile in chase rate, and 69th percentile in swinging strike %. He is 12th in the league with 94 strikeouts. He averages .89 K per inning on the season, but that number jumps to 1.02 K per inning on the road. He is a “5” pitch pitcher but has only thrown his curve 5 times all year. We can expect to see him attack lefties with his changeup and 4 seamer combo, and attack righties with a sinker and slider combo.
Despite having a tougher matchup on paper, I like Sandy to take advantage of the Cards recent contact struggles and rack up 6+ strikeouts.
Marlins vs. Cardinals Prop Pick: Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 strikeouts | +110 at FanDuel
