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Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions for Monday, July 31: Home Run Prop for Red Sox vs. Mariners

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite profitable home run bet for Monday night’s action.

Red Sox vs. Mariners Pick: Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run | +400 at FanDuel

Monday, July 31 | 9:40 p.m. ET

The Boston Red Sox continue their West Coast road trip as they now visit T-Mobile Park to square off against the Seattle Mariners who are sending George Kirby to the mound this evening.

Kirby has put together a very respectable campaign so far in 2023 over the span of his 20 starts for the M’s but we are expecting him to have his hands full with one particular Red Sox hitter tonight.

Using the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool, we discovered that not all books are on the same page tonight as some are posting drastically different odds if you’re looking to back Rafael Devers to go long for the Boston Red Sox.

The best value on the board is presented by FanDuel, who are listing this wager at a whopping +400. As we observed the board, other books are really short changing us on this same bet. We’ve got a couple of books offering +300 (Bet99 & BetVictor) with Caesars right behind them at +305, which is quite shocking when considering Devers has hit 25 HR’s to date in the 2023 MLB season. Let’s dig deeper into why we love this bet below.

As stated, Kirby has been very respectable for the Mariners posting a 3.49 ERA with 112 K’s over 123.2 innings of work so far in his 20 starts.

Unfortunately for Kirby, he has been the victim of the long ball in recent starts giving up at least one bomb in six of his last 10 starts (60%) which could spell trouble when Devers steps in the batter’s box.

Devers has faced off against Kirby nine times during his MLB career. In those nine matchups, Devers has hit his way to a .500 batting average and a .480 expected batting average which indicates to us not much luck is involved in Devers’ success over Kirby. However, the most important aspect of that success for us tonight is the fact Devers has in fact taken Kirby deep in one of those nine AB’s which is great news for us.

All things considered, when receiving over 90 cents of value, it’s hard to pass on a guy like Devers, who has 25 homers and has a proven track record against George Kirby having already taken him deep once before. We encourage you to lock this bet in with us and cheer on Devers tonight to cash a MASSIVE ticket for us.


Worth $3,411

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