Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

MLB

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday Picks Today – Home Run Props for Dinger Tuesday

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

OddsJam’s MLB expert takes you through HR picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, which states “Place a Pre-Live, Straight, $25+ “To Hit a Home Run” Wager on an MLB Game and get a $5 bonus in free bets for each home run both teams hit in the game (max $25), win or lose.”

You can place up to one eligible wager per game each Tuesday.

Below we break down picks for today’s entire MLB slate for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday.

Download OddsJam’s player prop betting app today to find the player props with the best value across every MLB game and market. 

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday HR Prop Picks Today – August 23, 2022

Angels vs. Rays Home Run Prop Pick: Taylor Ward | +600 at FanDuel

7:05 p.m. ET

When nothing sticks out matchup-wise, it’s always good to find value when filling out your Dinger Tuesday card.

Taylor Ward has 16 home runs in 98 games played this season or 1 home run per ~6.1 games. This would imply fair odds of +514, so right off the bat we are looking at decent value. On top of that, +600 looks great compared to other books. Ward is listed at +425 at DraftKings and can be found as low as +350 at Betway.

Subscribe to OddsJam’s YouTube Channel and Never Miss Out on the Top Plays, Tips and Action!

Diamondbacks vs. Royals Home Run Prop Pick: Salvador Perez | +340 at FanDuel

8:10 p.m. ET

This pick isn’t overly complicated – Perez has completely dominated the matchup against Arizona starter Zach Davies in his career. He is 3-6 with 3 HR lifetime against Davies, so this is a solid spot for the KC slugger to go yard.

Twins vs. Astros Home Run Prop Pick: Trey Mancini | +400 at FanDuel

8:10 p.m. ET

Mancini is finally free from the black hole that is Camden Yards. This past offseason, the Orioles moved back and increased the height of the left field wall in an attempt to decrease home runs. Unfortunately for Mancini, this worked.

He only had 10 home runs on the season before getting traded to Houston at the deadline. Since then, however, he’s already hit four.

Baltimore has the least favorable dimensions for a right-handed pull hitter, so a trade anywhere was always going to be beneficial to Mancini. It just so happens that Houston is one of the most favorable spots he could have landed.

According to baseballsavant.mlb.com, based on exit velocity and ball trajectory, we would expect Mancini to have hit 24 home runs if he played every game at Minute Maid Park. This is a dramatic increase from his actual total of 14, so I think we should start to see his home run numbers get a boost now that he gets to play his home games in a hitter-friendly park.

Additional Dinger Tuesday Home Run Prop Picks Today:

  • Ian Happ (CHC) +480 | 2:20pm EST
  • Austin Riley (ATL) +350 | 7:05pm EST
  • Kyle Stowers (BAL) +600 | 7:05pm EST
  • Rhys Hoskins (PHI) +300 | 7:05pm EST
  • Dan Vogelbach (NYM) +500 | 7:05pm EST
  • Vlad Guerrero Jr. (TOR) +390 | 7:10pm EST
  • Elehuris Montero (COL) +470 | 8:40pm EST
  • Manny Machado (SD) +400 | 9:40pm EST
  • Max Muncy (LAD) +430 | 10:10pm EST
  • Mitch Haniger (SEA) +370 | 10:10pm EST
  • STL/CHI (Game 2): No lines available. Will post my picks to Twitter if/when odds are released.
  • SF/DET: SKIP
  • MIA/OAK: SKIP

Follow me @dinger2sday on Twitter for more picks/analysis and good luck if you tail!

Season total: 17 weeks, 47 HRs called, P/L +$2,843


BONUS BETS

Worth $2,500

BetMGM logo

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets - Guaranteed! Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Fanatics logo

Get up to $1,000 Bonus Bets!

bet365 logo

$1,000 First Bet Safety Net!

DraftKings logo

Bet $5, Get $150 Bonus Bets Instantly!

FanDuel logo

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins!


Previous FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Picks

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday HR Prop Picks Today – August 16 , 2022

Cubs vs. Nationals Home Run Prop Pick: Christopher Morel | +540 at FanDuel

7:05 p.m. ET

For my first pick of the day, I’m rolling with the Cubs’ utility man who has 11 HRs on the season. Despite having the fifth most home runs of any player in tonight’s matchup between Chicago and Washington, he has the 11th longest odds to hit a home run. 

Guys like Franmil Reyes (10 HRs, +285 odds), Seiya Suzuki (9 HRs, +350 odds), and Nelson Cruz (9 HRs, +350 odds) all have fewer HRs with much shorter odds.

Nats’ starter Patrick Corbin has allowed the 6th most home runs in MLB this season, so I like the matchup as well for Morel to go yard tonight in D.C.

Subscribe to OddsJam’s YouTube Channel and Never Miss Out on the Top Plays, Tips and Action!

Mets vs. Braves Home Run Prop Pick: Vaughn Grissom | +680 at FanDuel

7:20 p.m. ET

It’s the time of year where I think you can find solid value in betting on rookies/minor league call-ups. For whatever reason, it seems like oddsmakers are slow in adjusting lines to new major leaguers.

In 6 games since being called up from AA-Mississippi, Grissom is hitting a scorching .429 with 2 doubles and 2 home runs. Despite the hot start, he has the longest odds of any player in this game to hit a HR. 

It’s certainly a longshot, but I will play the hot hand and take my chances with Grissom.

Athletics vs. Rangers Home Run Prop Pick: Corey Seager | +430 at FanDuel

8:05 p.m. ET

Seager is a unique player in that his power hitting actually favors a lefty vs lefty matchup. His 11.8 AB/HR ratio vs southpaws is noticeably better than his 19.2 AB/HR ratio vs righties.

In addition to favoring left-handed pitching, Seager also seems to prefer playing at home. Eighteen of his twenty-six total HRs have come at home in Arlington this season.

On top of the favorable splits, I like the value here too. When compared to other books, +430 odds look great. He is listed at +310 at DraftKings and can be found as low as +275 at Betway.

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Additional Dinger Tuesday Home Run Prop Picks Today:

  • Darick Hall (PHI) +400 | 6:40pm EST
  • Jesus Aguilar (MIA) +420 | 6:40pm EST
  • Aaron Judge (NYY) +280 | 7:05pm EST
  • Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) +400 | 7:07pm EST
  • Nick Gordon (MIN) +630 | 7:40pm EST
  • Nolan Arenado (STL) +360 | 7:45pm EST
  • Hunter Renfroe (MIL) +350 | 8:10pm EST
  • Julio Rodriguez (SEA) +330 | 9:38pm EST
  • Wilmer Flores (SF) +520 | 9:45pm EST
  • BOS/PIT: SKIP – bad lines
  • DET/CLE: SKIP – bottom 2 HR hitting teams in MLB
  • HOU/CHW: SKIP – tough pitching matchup

Follow me @dinger2sday on Twitter for more picks/analysis and good luck if you tail!

Season total: 16 weeks, 45 HRs called, P/L +$2,760

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday Picks Today – August 9, 2022

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Home Run Prop Pick: Matt Chapman | +350 at FanDuel

7:05 p.m. ET

Week after week, it feels like Matt Chapman is consistently undervalued when it comes to HR odds. Despite only trailing Vlad Jr. by 1 HR on the season (in 56 less AB), his odds are substantially longer (Vlad Jr. is +265 at FanDuel).

Chapman has been hot of late, as well. He’s hit 6 HRs in his last 11 games and has a HR in all 3 games vs Baltimore this season, including last night.

And speaking of hot – the high in Baltimore is 97° so the ball should be carrying!

Subscribe to OddsJam’s YouTube Channel and Never Miss Out on the Top Plays, Tips and Action!

Reds vs. Mets Home Run Prop Pick: Pete Alonso | +255 at FanDuel

7:10 p.m. ET

I don’t think I need to get too detailed in my analysis to convince anyone that Pete Alonso is a solid HR bet. He’s tied for 4th in the MLB with 29 HRs, so I’m not exactly going out on a limb here by betting on the Mets’ slugger.

If this pick is a little too chalk and you feel like choosing someone with longer odds, I would still recommend choosing a Met.

Reds’ starter Mike Minor has given up a HR in 10 of his 11 starts this year – surprisingly, his only HR-less game was against the Yankees. Minor’s 2.54 HR allowed per 9 IP ratio is easily the worst of any starter today (min 50 IP).

Ruf, Lindor, and Escobar are solid backups if you’re looking for juicier lines.

Cardinals vs. Rockies Home Run Prop Pick: Elehuris Montero | +500 at FanDuel

8:40 p.m. ET

On the opposite end of the “chalky” spectrum from Alonso, I’m rolling with Colorado rookie Elehuris Montero.

Although he has just 1 HR in 17 games since being called up, only 2 of those games were at Coors Field so he has yet to really take advantage of the altitude. He hit 15 HRs in 65 games with AAA Albuquerque so he’s definitely capable of going yard.

We’re getting pretty solid odds here, too –  +500 looks great when compared to +425 at DraftKings, +370 at PointsBet, and +340 at BetMGM.

BONUS BETS

Worth $150

BetMGM logo

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets - Guaranteed! Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Full Slate Dinger Tuesday Home Run Prop Picks Today –August 9, 2022 – Odds at FanDuel

  • JJ Bleday (MIA) +630 | 7:05pm EST
  • Austin Riley (ATL) +285 | 7:10pm EST
  • Jose Ramirez (CLE) +390 | 7:10pm EST
  • Luke Voit (WAS) +350 | 8:05pm EST
  • Willy Adames (MIL) +340 | 8:10pm EST
  • Marcus Semien (TEX) +400 | 8:10pm EST
  • Christian Walker (ARI) +450 | 9:40pm EST
  • Brandon Belt (SF) +450 | 9:40pm EST
  • Jose Miranda (MIN) +450 | 10:10pm EST
  • Eugenio Suarez (SEA) +430 | 10:10pm EST
  • LAA/OAK: SKIP – pitching/weather

As of writing this, there are no odds available for the CHW/KC doubleheader. I will post picks to Twitter for those games if/when odds are released.

Follow me @dinger2sday on Twitter for more picks/analysis and good luck if you tail!

Season total: 15 weeks, 42 HRs called, P/L +$2,526

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday Picks Today – August 2, 2022

Reds vs. Marlins Home Run Prop Pick: Kyle Farmer | +750 at FanDuel

6:40 p.m. ET

For a guy with only 6 home runs this season, it makes sense why the odds are so long for Farmer to go yard tonight. The odds don’t seem so bad, however, when compared to other books.

He is listed at +600 most everywhere else and can be found as low as +475 at BetMGM.

Download OddsJam’s player prop betting app today to find the player props with the best value across every MLB game and market. 

On top of that, I like the matchup tonight for Farmer. The Marlins are starting LHP Braxton Garrett.

Kyle Farmer 2022 stats:

  • vs. LHP — .333 BA / .600 SLG / 5 HRs in 90 ABs
  • vs. RHP — .215 BA / .279 SLG / 1 HR in 219 ABs

His splits are stacked so much in favor of left-handed pitching that I think it’s worth it to take a chance on a longshot.

Orioles vs. Rangers Home Run Prop Pick: Corey Seager | +330 at FanDuel

8:05 p.m. ET

Speaking of favorable splits — Corey Seager has hit 17 HRs in 178 ABs at home this season compared to 7 HRs in 195 ABs on the road.

The only player on the Rangers with more than 17 TOTAL HRs is Adolis Garcia with 18.

Seager has been hot lately, too. He’s tallied 8 HRs in his last 19 games, including 1 last night. And when he gets hot, he stays hot. On 9 separate occasions this season, Seager has hit a HR in back-to-back games. 

Let’s hope he does it again tonight!

BONUS BETS

Worth $150

BetMGM logo

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets - Guaranteed! Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Royals vs. White Sox Home Run Prop Pick: Salvador Perez | +215 at FanDuel

8:10 p.m. ET

I know I’m gonna get dragged by the +EV betting community for this one.

Yes, +215 are pretty awful odds for a guy to hit a HR (better than Aaron Judge at +172, at least) but I love the matchup.

Perez is 8-25 with 3 HRs in his career against Lucas Giolito. 

And since missing most of July with a thumb injury, Perez has hit 3 home runs in the four games in his return.

If the thought of betting a HR prop at +215 makes you sick, Eloy Jimenez (+370) and MJ Melendez (+420) are solid options as well.

Full Slate Dinger Tuesday Home Run Prop Picks Today –August 2, 2022 – Odds at FanDuel

  • Willy Adames (MIL) +340 | 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Brandon Nimmo (NYM) +540 | 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Cal Raleigh (SEA) +430 | 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Christian Walker (ARI) +390 | 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) +400 | 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Dansby Swanson (ATL) +400 | 7:20 p.m. ET
  • Nolan Arenado (STL) +340 | 7:45 p.m. ET
  • Franchy Cordero (BOS) +520 | 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Shohei Ohtani (LAA) +360 | 9:38 p.m. ET
  • Mookie Betts (LAD) +400 | 9:45 p.m. ET

Subscribe to OddsJam’s YouTube Channel and Never Miss Out on the Top Plays, Tips and Action!

There are no odds listed yet for COL/SD Game 2, so I will post picks to my Twitter when they come available.

Follow me @dinger2sday on Twitter for more picks/analysis and good luck if you tail!

Season total: 14 weeks, 37 HRs called, P/L +$2,101

FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday Picks Today – July 12, 2022

Pirates vs. Marlins Home Run Prop Pick: Oneil Cruz | +800 at FanDuel

8:40 p.m. ET

Oneil Cruz has 4 HRs in just 20 games played this season. Compare that to some of his teammates’ stats:  Ke’Bryan Hayes (4 HR, 79 GP, +540 odds), Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (2 HR, 40 GP, +680 odds) and Jake Marisnick (1 HR, 23 GP, +680 odds).

Download OddsJam’s player prop betting app today to find the player props with the best value across every MLB game and market. 

It seems like on a nightly basis, the Pirates rookie is posting exit-velocity numbers that can only be rivaled by the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, so +800 seems like a steal.

Orioles vs. Cubs Home Run Prop Pick: Trey Mancini | +350 at FanDuel

8:05 p.m. ET

In an effort to change Camden Yards’ reputation as a home-run happy park, the Orioles decided to increase the height and distance of its left-field wall this past offseason.

Unfortunately for last year’s Home Run Derby runner-up, Trey Mancini, the Orioles’ plan worked. At the same date last year, Mancini had 16 HRs, twice as many as he does now.

BONUS BETS

Worth $150

BetMGM logo

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets - Guaranteed! Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Lucky for him, tonight’s game is being played in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. According to baseballsavant.com, based on the trajectory and exit velocity of his batted balls, we would expect him to have 15 HRs if he played every game at Wrigley.

(Interestingly, based on the same metrics he would have 22 HRs if he played every game at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. *checks Orioles schedule for road games against the Reds*)

I’m backing Mancini, who I feel is undervalued this season, and who may feel at home away from home in Chicago.

Padres vs. Rockies Home Run Prop Pick: Jorge Alfaro | +430 at FanDuel

8:40 p.m. ET

In a game with a high total (11) like this, there are several solid choices on both teams but I’m looking to fade Rockies starter Austin Gomber (6.46 ERA with 14 HRs allowed this season). 

Subscribe to OddsJam’s YouTube Channel and Never Miss Out on the Top Plays, Tips and Action!

While I wouldn’t fault anyone for betting on Manny Machado or Luke Voit, I think there’s better value with a guy like Alfaro. He has just 6 HRs on the year, but 4 of those come against left-handed pitchers. His rate of 1 HR per 11.75 AB vs. lefties far outshines his 1 HR per 62 AB ratio vs. RHP. 

In addition, he’s priced at +330 across the board on other books so there is definitely value in this line.

Full Slate Dinger Tuesday Home Run Prop Picks Today – July 12, 2022 – Odds at FanDuel

  • Anthony Rizzo (NYY) +370 | 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Julio Rodriguez (SEA) +300 | 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Isaac Paredes (TB) +500 | 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Matt Olson (ATL) +430 | 7:20 p.m. ET
  • Gary Sanchez (MIN) +520 | 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Nolan Arenado (STL) +360 | 7:45 p.m. ET
  • Adolis Garcia (TEX) +360 | 8:05 p.m. ET
  • Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) +460 | 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Mike Trout (LAA) +285 | 9:38 p.m. ET
  • Christian Walker (ARI) +560 | 9:45 p.m. ET

There are no odds listed yet for PHI/TOR and CHW/CLE (game two of doubleheader), so I will post picks to my Twitter when they become available.

Follow me @dinger2sday on Twitter for more picks/analysis and good luck if you tail!

Season total: 12 weeks, 34 HRs called, P/L +$2,004

Bonus Bets in Virginia

BetMGM

BetMGM

Fanatics

Fanatics

bet365

bet365

DraftKings

DraftKings

FanDuel

FanDuel