Chicago Cubs (36-57) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (49-44) Prop Picks
6:05 p.m. ET
The Cubs unloaded on the Phillies last night. They hit Gibson well, resulting in 6 earned runs in only 4.1 innings. The Phillies used 4 bullpen arms and capped it off with their backup catcher, Garrett Stubbs on the mound for the 9th inning where he allowed 5 runs.
The Phillies will be looking for revenge after a disastrous start to their second half of the season. Luckily for them, they have their ace on the mound to take care of business.
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Zack should be very fresh after a 10 day break. Last year’s Cy Young runner up has enjoyed a terrific season. He has an 8-5 record with a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
Zack is averaging 1.09 K per inning with a slight uptick to 1.11 K per inning at home. He has low K numbers so far in July after facing the Cardinals x2 and the Blue Jays, but I am sure he will be happy to see the Cubs walk up to the plate.
He is over 6.5 K in 6 of his 9 home starts this season, and 19 of 27 dating back to last season. He currently sits in the 63rd percentile in K per inning, 62nd percentile in swinging strike percentage, 74th percentile in K rate, 52nd percentile in whiff rate, and an incredible 91st percentile in chase rate. That chase rate will be a large factor, more on that soon.
The Cubs have been a great matchup this season. They average the 4th most K per game at 8.88. They have a 23.1% K rate vs righties this season, and a small jump to 23.5% over the last 30 days. They have the 4th worst contact % on pitches inside the zone.
Most importantly, they have the 5th worst contact % on chased pitches, a key stat vs someone with Zack’s elite ability to get guys to chase. Overall, the Cubs have the 4th highest whiff rate.
I like Zack to go deep into this game to give the bullpen a bit of rest after last night’s disaster, and should be able to pick up 7+ in this matchup.