Chicago Cubs (47-67) @ Washington Nationals (39-78)
7:06 p.m. ET
Justin Steele does not have the most impressive numbers in the league by any means. He is 4-7 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. With that said, his K numbers have been becoming more and more impressive as the season has gone on, and I am gonna jump on board here.
The Cubs were fairly cautious with him to begin the season. He only started nine MLB games prior to this year, so it has taken some time to work into a full and effective workload. He is now averaging 90.4 pitches per start over his last 10. In starts with 85+ pitches, he has hit the over in seven of 11 and three of four on the road.
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He seems to be putting it all together lately as he has a 1.90 ERA with 27 K in 19.1 innings over the last 30 days. So far in August, he has 19 K in 10.2 innings (including 9 vs. the Nats last start). He has a 42.2% K rate in these two starts.
Beyond that, he has 6+ K in six of his last eight games and is averaging 6.6 K per game during that span.
He has been far more effective racking up Ks on the road as well. He has 45 K in 36.1 road innings, a big improvement on his 61 K in 65.1 home innings. His K rate at home is 22.1%, when he travels it jumps to 26.3%. That is a trend that holds into last season as well.
Let’s talk about the Nats. Their season-long K numbers are not one to target, but obviously, this is a brand new team since the deadline.
They ditched two brutal K targets in Juan Soto and Bell, and brought in a friend of strikeout bettors everywhere in Luke Voit. They now hold the sixth-worst K rate against LHP over the last 30 days and have a lineup full of targets.
Their lineup is not official, but some of the targets we might see: (K rate vs. LHP over L30)
V. Robles 33.3%
L. Voit 31.8%
L. Thomas 39.1%
K. Ruiz 33.3%
C. Hernandez 20.0%
M. Franco 21.4%
I. Vargas 28.6%
I do not often target pitchers when they face the same team back to back, but with the inexperience of this lineup and Steele’s recent stretch, I will take a shot with +136 odds.
Cubs vs. Nationals Pick: Justin Steele 6+ Strikeouts | +136 at FanDuel
