St. Louis Cardinals (67-51) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (55-64)
8:10 p.m. ET
This bet is a bit out of the blue. I bet this market several times a week but have yet to write about it. I am going to start with a quick explanation of what we are looking for, just to ensure we are on the same page.
This is a FanDuel exclusive to my knowledge. FanDuel is probably the only book that I would do something like this with because I find that a very high percentage of people have the book. You will find this line by going to “first half,” then going to “first half run line / total runs parlay”. Alright, let’s talk about the bet itself.
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I kept sifting through pitcher props this morning and my eyes kept coming back to this game. I had to find a way to play it, and I believe we are getting terrific value here. I believe that there will be a solid amount of runs in this one, as I think both pitchers are much worse than their ERA might suggest.
The natural over/under total runs in the first half is 5.5, so I love that we are getting one less run with the parlay. I also love the Cards to do damage against Bumgarner, enough that I feel really comfortable with the +1.5, essentially starting the game up 1-0 in the Cards’ favor.
Dakota Hudson will be on the mound for the Cardinals. Dakota does not have terrific numbers on the surface and he has been regressing so I like that trend to continue. Firstly, he is a much different pitcher on the road. He has a 5.10 road ERA compared to his 3.25 at home. I believe Dakota’s regression will continue and it seems to have begun with his 5.14 July ERA and 5.00 August ERA.
Dakota is in the third percentile in K rate and the 13th percentile in walk rate. He struggles with control and is unable to miss bats. He is in the 13th percentile in average exit velocity, 13th percentile in hard hit percentage, fourth percentile in xBA, eighth percentile in xERA and 22nd percentile in xSLG. Alright, I have dissed him enough. In all reality, we do not need him to get blown up, but think Arizona can sneak 2 runs off him in the first five.
Madison Bumgarner is the main target here. Madison was enjoying a decent year at one point but has now allowed 4+ runs in five of his last six starts. He will see a brutal matchup today. Current Cardinals batters are a combined 62/212 with 29 extra-base hits (11 home runs). The sample size is massive and that includes several of the years when Madison was a great pitcher in his SF days.
St. Louis has crushed lefties all year. They rank third in BA, first in OBP, second in SLG and first in OPS against southpaws for the season. I like them to get to MadBum early and often in this one, so I love the over 4.5 and getting them at a +1.5 advantage to start the game.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks Pick: Cardinals +1.5 & Over 4.5 Runs Paraly | +130 at FanDuel
