Braves vs. Mets Best Bets for Sunday: No Masterclass from Strider

We have fifteen MLB games on August 7, and I’ll be sharing one of my favorite player prop picks with you in this betting preview. I’m eyeing the Braves vs. Mets game today, and I have a sharp bet from the OddsJam Positive EV Betting Tool. This game is taking place at Citi Field in Queens, New York, and the first pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm ET.

The New York Mets beat Atlanta on Saturday, taking a 3-1 lead in this series. The fifth & final game of the series is today on 8/7/22, and we have an insane matchup. Jacob deGrom, who was injured most of the season, is taking the mound for the Mets on Sunday. In this first outing of the 2022 season, Jacob deGrom surrendered 1 earned run to the Washington Nationals in 5 innings pitched. He had five strikeouts as well.

Spencer Strider (6-3, 2.79 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Atlanta Braves on Sunday. In this last outing, Strider had an insane performance against the Phillies, giving up only 1 earned run in 6.2 innings pitched. He also had 13 strikeouts.

Two awesome pitchers are facing off on Sunday, so this should be a great MLB game. The total, unsurprisingly, is quite low. The over/under is set at 7 runs and juiced towards the under. The under 7 is priced at -122 odds on FanDuel, and the over is set at +100.

On FanDuel sportsbook, the Atlanta Braves are +118 underdogs on the moneyline. The Mets are offered at -138 odds on FanDuel. This is a little surprising to me, and I’d lean to the NY Mets moneyline. However, I don’t have an official moneyline pick in this Braves vs. Mets betting preview.

Spencer Strider has been streaky this season. Although he had 13 strikeouts in his last outing, he had 6 & 4 strikeouts in his previous two games. The play I’m on today is from the OddsJam Positive EV sports betting software, and I’m on Strider under 6.5 strikeouts at -102 odds on FanDuel sportsbook.

The value in Strider under 6.5 strikeouts is clear. As seen above on the OddsJam Positive EV Tool, this bet has a profit margin of 5.97%. This means that betting $100 will yield $5.97 in expected profit margin, or EV. FanDuel is offering Strider u6.5 Ks at -102 odds, and no other sportsbook is anywhere close. DraftKings & Caesars are offering -125 and -135 odds on this MLB prop bet, respectively.

This would’ve been a 1 unit play for me, but FanDuel gave me a maximum bet size of $51. I guess Positive EV bets are beating them a little too hard!

Regardless, I locked in this player prop pick on Spencer Strider. I think this is one of the top MLB prop bets for Sunday. Expected Strider to struggle tonight against a powerful NY Mets team. The Mets have put up 26 runs in the first four games of the series. Pretty impressive if you ask me.