The Braves had a day yesterday to reflect on getting body slammed by the Mets over the weekend. If that does not ignite them, I am not sure what will. They take a short trip to Fenway to face old man Rich Hill with one of their top guys on the mound. I love the Braves to bounce back here.
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Let’s talk about Rich Hill first. The 42 years old is somehow still a decent pitcher. I will not pick on him much, dude is doing about as well as a 42 year old can. It is pretty impressive, but Fenway has not been kind to him. In 6 home starts, Rich has a 6.49 ERA, allowing 33 hits and 21 runs in 26.1 innings.
He has allowed 6 home runs in those 26.1 innings and faces a powerful offense. Night games have also been a challenge for RIch, as he has a 5.64 ERA in 30.1 innings. Rich does not miss many bats, which is the Braves achilles heel. I think the Braves have early success vs him. Following Rich will be the league’s 4th worst bullpen (4.42 ERA). I think the Braves are set up well to score tons of runs in this one.
Charlie Morton has had a very interesting season. He had a 7.00 ERA at the end of April and a 5.47 ERA at the end of May. Morton, also up there in age, looked like age had finally caught up a bit. He has since followed it up with a 3.52 ERA in June, 3.30 ERA in July, and 6.2 scoreless innings to start August.
He has been terrific and lowered his ERA to 4.09 ERA for the season. We are not asking too much of Morton as far as K are concerned. Boston has the 3rd worst K rate vs righties over the last 30 days, and Charlie has 5+ K in 12 straight starts. Following Charlie will be the league’s 6th best bullpen (3.31 ERA).
I don’t often speak much about the mental side of the game, cause who am I to say when motivation should be a factor. However it feels like if there is ever a time, it is now for the Braves. They just got embarrassed by the Mets and the NL wild card race is getting very tight with the Phillies and Padres right there. I love the Braves to pull out the win in this one, and do not see Charlie having much trouble picking up 5 K. Love this at plus odds.
Braves vs. Red Sox Prop Pick: Charlie Morton 5 strikeouts/Atlanta Braves win | +100 at FanDuel