Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions – August 25, 2022: High Probability for 10 Ks in This Matchup

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Betting Odds

7:11 p.m. ET

What an interesting year for Kevin Gausman. His first season in Toronto has been full of ups and downs. His ERA by month has been quite a thing to keep an eye on:

• April: 2.19
• May: 2.72
• June: 3.96
• July: 5.09
• August: 1.75

As the temperatures of summer increased, as did his ERA. Although, now it seems Kevin is back to his elite ways having 0 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. I am gonna jump aboard his hot streak here against a team he has had a lot of success against. 

Kevin is one of those odd players that seems to thrive on the road. His splits are quite eye-opening:

• Home ERA: 4.63
• Away ERA: 1.65
• Home opponent average: .324
• Away opponent average: .222
• Home K rate: 26.3%
• Away K rate: 29.1%

If you have not guessed by now, this is a road appearance for Kevin. He has been a monster at strikeouts on the road as he is over 6.5 in 8 of 11 starts. 

Gausman is having an elite season with strikeouts overall. He ranks 12th in the league in K with 149. He is in the 80th percentile in K rate, 77th percentile in whiff rate, 99th percentile in chase rate, and 94th percentile in swinging strike percentage. He features one of the league’s best pitches, his splitter, which has a 44.7 whiff rate. An insane rate for a pitch he throws 35.7% of the time. This Boston team has had a terrible time trying to figure that splitter out. 

This will be Kevin’s 5th start vs the Sox. In the 4 prior games, he has 8, 9, 10, and 10 strikeouts. I love backing Kevin here to duplicate the success he has had all season vs this Sox team averaging 9.33 K per game over their last 3.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts | +116 at FanDuel