Toronto Blue Jays (60-48) vs. Baltimore Orioles (56-52)
7:05 p.m. ET
It will be a 91 degree night with winds out to left field at Camden yards tonight. It is beautiful conditions for right handed hitters, and last I heard the Blue Jays have a pretty good one.
It does not take a guru to tell you to take Vlad total bases, but there is more to this matchup I just had to bring attention to.
At one point this season, it nearly appeared like Vlad was having a down year. He was solid in April, but struggled more than we are used to in May where he batted .217 with 3 home runs. On June 1st, Vlad had a .249 average.
Register for free to continue reading
Confirm your email and state to access the rest of this article, for free:
He began to turn it around in June and the power came back. He smacked 9 home runs and batted .283. Fast forward to now, Vlad is batting .290 for the season thanks to his .359 average over the last 30 days, and .404 average over the last 15 days. Few hitters in the league are as dangerous as Vladdy when he is seeing the ball well.
Despite his slow start, Vlad has always torn up right handers. That has not changed this season as he is hitting .290 vs them, .226 ISO, and 39 extra base hits in 341 at bats. He has 3 at bats vs tonight’s RHP, Jordan Lyles. He is 1/3 with a homer. Lyles will be throwing primarily fastball/slider Vlads way, two pitches that Vlad crushes so I love his chances for extra base hits, and perhaps another home run.
The main narrative though, Vlad Jr. loves playing the Orioles. Since the beginning of last season, Vlad has played the O’s 23 times. In those 23 games he has gone over 1.5 total bases in 17 of them. In those 23 games, he has 14 home runs. He has averaged 3.5 total bases vs the O’s over that span. He went over in 6 of 9 last season at Camden, and will play there tonight for the first time this season in great hitting conditions.
I love Vladdy to have a big night at the plate. I will be rolling with over 1.5 total bases, but also love the idea of a sprinkle on him to homer at +380 on DraftKings.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Prop Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr over 1.5 total bases | -115 at DraftKings
