Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions for August 28: Target Gausman vs. Nats

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite profitable player prop pick for tonight’s MLB action.

Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -105 at Fliff

7:07 p.m. ET

The struggling Blue Jays take on another team in the Guardians who currently find themselves out of the playoff picture. It’s been a rather disappointing season for the Blue Jays when factoring in the team they have built and been able to put on the field.

Pitcher Kevin Gausman certainly agreed when he called out his team a few days back indicating a desire for the squad to buckle in down the stretch. In other words, it’s time for him to make a statement and back his words up and we expect Gausman to do just that tonight.

Using the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool, some line discrepancies popped out at us right away. Gausman’s over 6.5 strikeouts prop was intriguing given the differing prices we came across when scanning the board. If you’re looking to back one of the Cy Young Award favorites tonight, the best price as of writing is at Fliff who currently are listing this wager at -105.

It always pays to shop around and today is no different. We’re receiving 40 cents of value as Pinny has the same wager listed at a whopping -145. Let’s dig in deeper and see why we love this bet tonight.

Kevin Gausman is one of the leading candidates to receive the 2023 MLB Cy Young Award having started 25 games recording a 3.23 ERA and collecting 195 K’s over his 150 innings of work to date. Tonight, he has something to prove after calling out his teammates publicly and their lack of urgency as the Jays find themselves out of the playoffs.

Over Gausman’s last 10 starts, he has eclipsed this strikeout number six times (60%) and has done so in 16 of his 25 total starts on the season (64%) which suggests to us his last 10 starts have not been any sort of fluke. While looking at Gausman, it’s equally important to look at the bats of the Nationals who he will be opposing tonight. In their last 10 games, the Nationals have surpassed the strikeout number of seven or more in five of those 10 (50%) which may not seem like much, but outside of Zach Wheeler (Phillies) they were not faced with a ton of difficulty over that stretch – at least anyone on the level Kevin Gausman is currently on.

The Jays are struggling at the moment and need their ace to pitch like their ace tonight. Gausman has been impressive all season and with his teams back up against the wall, we don’t see why that changes tonight. We’re riding with the big man to do his work on the mound and get us a lot of swings and misses from this Nationals club under the dome tonight.