Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Expect a Dinger in D.C.

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite profitable bet for today’s MLB slate.

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Pick: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run | +360 at Bet365

7:05 p.m. ET

Two clubs who sit at the bottom of the NL East and well back of a potential wildcard berth do battle tonight in Washington for a mini two-game series.

While neither club has much to play for and are going through the motions at this point, it doesn’t mean value doesn’t exist. It does and we found it. It lies with the New York Met sporting the number 20 jersey.

Using the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool, we scanned the board and could not believe what we came across. Bet365 is offering us a whopping +360 to back Pete Alonso in the home run department tonight.

Has anyone checked who the opposing pitcher is? Hard to believe they did. While Bet365 is sleeping, we’re going to take advantage of their laziness and lock it in.

For comparison, other books such as Pinny have this same wager listed at +218 while Caesars is not far behind at +250; a long way from the +360 offered at Bet365. Let’s dig into this bet a bit more below.

Pete Alonso has crushed 41 bombs during the 2023 MLB season which has him sitting third in the league leaders department behind only Shohei Ohtani (44) and Matt Olson (44).

Alonso ended an 11 game streak last time out against the Seattle Mariners when he went deep twice, so the hope is he will carry that momentum into a battle that he has dominated over the years vs. Nationals Pitcher Patrick Corbin.

Alonso has squared up 51 times throughout his career against Corbin and has earned a .326 batting average and .336 expected batting average, but more importantly for us today is the number of times Alonso has homered off Corbin.

In those 51 AB’s, Corbin has given up five HR’s to Pete Alonso which is significant, and to be receiving the price we are receiving for him to do so again today is absolutely mind boggling.

The other side to this bet is Patrick Corbin. In his last 10 starts, he is giving up an average of 1.2 HR’s per outing and has only gone three appearances in his last 10 without conceding a HR.

Simply put, Corbin is there for the taking and going up against an opponent that has feasted off him in the past while the form Corbin is currently in spells disaster for the Nationals starter. We’re not hesitating with our selection today and don’t think you should either. Lock it in!