OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite profitable player prop bet for tonight’s MLB slate.
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics Pick: Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts | +100 at Fliff
Tuesday, August 8 | 9:40 p.m. ET
The 32-81 Oakland Athletics welcome the AL West leading Texas Rangers for the second of three matchups this evening as the Rangers send first-ballot Hall of Famer Max Scherzer to the mound to help maintain the distance in the Division race between themselves and the Houston Astros (3 GB).
We couldn’t contain our excitement when we saw Scherzer’s strikeout prop tonight and more so when comparing the numbers across various books. We got an absolute banger and we’ll go through it below.
We’re being offered over 37 cents of value on Scherzer’s over 7.5 strikeouts via Fliff (+100) in comparison to what other books are offering us for the same wager. For example, Pinny has it at -134. Luckily for us, the positive expected value tool allows us to exploit these discrepancies and we hope you ride alongside us tonight. Let’s dig into this wager a bit more.
The Oakland Athletics are one of the worst teams in baseball and their record reflects that. For the purpose of this wager though, let’s take a look at their strikeout totals in recent games. Over their last 10 games, the A’s have struck out eight times or more in eight of those 10, only failing to do so against Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers) and Alex Cobb (Giants). In other words, over that span, the Athletics would have cashed this bet for us 80% of the time which is ridiculous.
While we have painted the clear picture of how poor the Athletics have been in the box, let’s look at Scherzer and how he has performed as of late. Max has been a bit off in the 2023 MLB campaign as he carries a 4.04 ERA into tonight’s match up, however he’s still striking out hitters at an impressive rate and has averaged 7.2 over his last 10 starts.
While that number doesn’t carry us to victory tonight, we need to bring into consideration his opponent tonight and how that will aid in his quest to hit the magic number of 8 strikeouts tonight for us. Over those same 10 games, Max has indeed cashed this bet for us in five of those 10 starts (50%) while squaring up against arguably tougher competition.
Let’s not overthink this. Scherzer vs the Athletics. Let’s ride. Lock it in and cash with us!