Best MLB Bets, Picks & Predictions for August 15: Value on this Pitcher Prop

OddsJam betting expert @NorthSideCapper is back with his favorite profitable player prop for the MLB slate on August 15.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick: Adrian Houser Under 15.5 Outs | -134 at BetRivers

10:10 p.m. ET

Two National League division leaders square off tonight at beautiful Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles as the Dodgers welcome the Milwaukee Brewers in what should be an interesting three-game series.

The Brewers will be sending Adrian Houser to the mound in the first game of the series. Houser has put together a respectable season posting a 4.39 ERA, however he isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher collecting only 62 punchouts in his 78 innings of work. This could pose a potential problem tonight against a powerful Dodgers line up.

Using the OddsJam Positive Expected Value tool, we often find spots that provide us with a ton of value and tonight is no different. We have over 40 cents of value if looking to back Houser’s outs prop.

The best value on the board tonight comes the way of BetRivers who are offering this option at -134. While we attempt to take advantage of books that may be caught sleeping, others are not and have drastically different prices. Some of those books include DraftKings (-175) and Caesars (-173) so for obvious reasons it’s best to shop around if interested in fading Houser vs the Dodgers tonight. Let’s dig into this bet a bit deeper.

Adrian Houser has started 14 times for the Brewers this season. In those 14 starts, Houser has gone past five innings (15 outs) seven times (50%) which suggests to us he isn’t a pitcher you can necessarily rely on every five days to take you deep into ball games; this works in our favor today.

Houser has shown flashes of brilliance at times during the season and we can’t take that away from him with the start against the Atlanta Braves coming to mind where he posted 10 strikeouts over six innings of work in what was a 4-3 Brewers victory. Six days later vs those same Braves? Four innings of work, three strikeouts, and six earned runs.

The one positive Houser does have going for him is the lack of AB’s the Dodgers have against him which could benefit Houser in tonight’s clash with only Miguel Rojas, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward registering more than 5 AB’s against Houser.

The Dodgers are deep and score at will having done so 664 times to date this season, trailing only the Braves in runs scored who have 695. Houser has proven to be inconsistent at times throughout the year and going more than 5 innings in only 50% of his starts proves great value to us. We’re riding with the Dodgers offense to do their job and get to the Brewers bullpen early tonight in Los Angeles.