2022 AL MVP Betting Odds: Expert Aaron Judge Prediction

The dust from crossing home plate is settling as we head into the home stretch for MLB’s top awards.

The AL MVP has been a two-horse race most of the season. We help ensure you bet on the right one to cross the finish.

2022 AL MVP Odds

2022 AL MVP Predictions & Picks

Aaron Judge’s Case | -1050 at FanDuel

Aaron Judge demolishes baseballs at an astounding pace of 64 home runs. That theoretical number would be the highest single-season total of any player not connected to steroid use. That feat carries as much weight as Judge’s bulky biceps in this era of emphasizing launch angle and exit velocity for optimal swing outcomes.

Judge’s bat barrage pumps his overall slugging percentage to a leaderboard-dominating .684. Patience channels the aggression into pleasing contact numbers too. Judge bats .304 with an AL-best .408 OBP. The marks eviscerate the AL average of .242/.309. By comparison, Ohtani bats .257/.356

Furthermore, he fends off Ohtani for the overall WAR lead. Many modernized voters hail WAR as the king of sabermetrics. The gap between Judge and Ohtani is currently wider than the gap between Ohtani and Nolan Arenado in fourth place. 

Individual accomplishments are important, but many argue team success defines the “valuable” part of MVP. Superman isn’t the most valuable hero if he’s sitting in the Daily Planet while the Avengers protect Earth during October.

Judge bettors like that analogy more than DC fans. 26 of the last 30 MVP winners starred on winning teams.

 The Yankees boast the second-best record in the AL, despite a humbling slump stemming from injuries to the supporting cast. The Angels continue to waste Trout and Ohtani’s generational talents.

The far prouder tradition of Yankee excellence authors a gripping narrative for the MVP. Keep in mind Commissioner Rob Manfred spearheads a push for more offense. Judge supplies top totals for the historically top team in the largest market. Winning his first MVP gives Judge a new glow beyond the snapping cameras capturing his moonshots. 

Ohtani faces the uphill climb of many perceiving that reigning MVPs need to top last season to repeat. Ohtani’s pitching has improved, but his hitting and baserunning performance while good has noticeably declined from last year’s greatness.

Shohei Ohtani’s Case | +550 at FanDuel

Numbers don’t lie. Ohtani’s don’t make it any easier to believe what we are witnessing. 

On the mound, Ohtani ranks third in AL pitching WAR and is two strikeouts away from the same place in AL strikeouts. The only Angels in history to strike out over 116 batters in a 14-start span while allowing no more than 18 earned runs are Nolan Ryan and Shohei Ohtani.

Ryan smacked two home runs in 957 plate appearances across 27 years. Only Judge has more in the AL this season than Ohtani’s 33.

Babe Ruth didn’t do that while pitching more than two games. Nobody has or likely ever will again. Unprecedented duality affords Ohtani an outside chance at catching Judge for the overall WAR lead. 

The fallen Angels have no chance in heaven nor hell to supplant the Yankees. Ohtani supporters argue the AL’s outhouse would have exponentially fewer wins without Ohtani. The pinstriped powerhouse is 166-136 without Judge all-time during his career absences.

The argument paints a different picture of what “most valuable” means. Ohtani crushes everyone if we use the simple criteria of finding the best professional at playing baseball in a given year. Although Judge is an elite hitter while Ohtani this year is a good one, Judge is obviously incapable of pitching. Ohtani has been a very effective pitcher. 

I’d argue that gives an unfair weight to versatility and caution that, if we use the same logic each year, Ohtani will remain MVP for as long as he stays a healthy two-way player.

 That opens a different debate for a different day. For now, I think voters would find an MVP monopoly too mundane in a sport that champions pure tradition more than arguably any other.

Pick to Win AL MVP: Aaron Judge | -1050 at FanDuel