Johnny Covers: 2022 Valero Texas Open Picks

The 100th edition of the Valero Texas Open is slated to go off this week, as the annual precursor to The Masters serves as one final chance for those who haven’t yet qualified for Augusta.

A Sunday battle seemingly every year, this year is likely to be no different as elite players such as Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau will tee it up against many in the field needing a win more than ever. 

The importance of this tournament was on full display in 2018, as Corey Conners made the field via Monday’s qualifier, going on to win the event and qualify for The Masters.

Will another up-and-coming player take home the trophy this week? Or will it be another blue blood such as Spieth last year just fine-tuning for Augusta?

Let’s take a closer look at two guys I think could get it done. 

2022 Valero Texas Open Outright Winner Picks

Corey Conners (+1800 on DraftKing Sportsbook)

In starts since 2016, Conners ranks #2 in this week’s field in average strokes gained at TPC San Antonio and #1 in the field in total strokes gained per round at 2.19 (12 rounds). He also has the course track record to back it up. A winner here in 2019, Conners has finishes of T26 and T14 in his two other appearances in this event. 

Coming into this week, Conners has finished T26 or higher in three straight Tour events, including a third-place finish in last weekend’s WGC-Dell Match Play Championship. Amongst one of the most stacked fields so far this year, Conners went 5-0 in the match play event before losing in the semis. 

Over the Tour’s last four weeks of play, Conners ranks #2 in greens in regulation (70.1%) and #8 in scrambling (71.4%), two metrics critical for success here in San Antonio. Pairing his course history with recent performances, I like for the Canadian to once again find success here in Texas. 

Chris Kirk (+2500 on DraftKing Sportsbook)

A trendy pick already this week, taking a closer look at Kirk, and I still think there’s some value at 25/1 to win outright. While he’s struggled to finish the job on some recent Sundays, Kirk has two top 10s in his past three events (T7 Honda Classic, T5 Arnold Palmer), as well as a T14 just before that at the Waste Management Open.

His SG: Total (1.317) and SG: Around the Green (.416) are both good enough for the top 16 on Tour heading into this event, two metrics critical for success not just at TPC San Antonio but anywhere. 

And then there’s his course history at TPC San Antonio. Over his past five starts, Kirk has three finishes of T13 or higher including a T6 here last year. Over his past 24 rounds here, Kirk ranks #8 in the field in total strokes gained per round at +1.37.

Add in the fact that Kirk needs a win to sneak into next week’s Masters, and I think we see a renewed focus from the Tour veteran as he finds himself in contention come Sunday afternoon.