I generally spread my pre-tournament units around between the outright market, placement bets and typically a few exotic bets. I save a chunk of my designated funds for live betting (matchups, futures, etc.).
Golf is the only sport (that I’m aware of) where you are betting on a 4-day event. Therefore, if you watch, you get to learn a lot about who is and isn’t playing well (much more than the scoreboard alone tells you). Live betting is critical to making money with golf wagering.
Let’s take a look at the initial outright betting card:
Playing prop bets are typically not my forte, especially in team sports. However, golf is so astronomically different from team sports.
A multitude of different factors are at play that could alter an individual’s statistics in all team games, whereas in golf, if you think (or know) a player has a tangible edge – bet it!
That being said, early this week I did a deep dive through the Valero’s extensive prop market. I wound up placing a bet on Rory McIlroy to miss the cut (+350). I placed ½ unit ($50) on it and like my chances.
My thought process was that Rory has not been in great form, he hasn’t played this tournament in nearly 10 years and you know that 110% of his focus is on performing well next week at Augusta. Not to mention, McIlroy’s odds to miss the cut were nearly double that of the 2nd highest odds (Corey Conners +205).
FRIDAY UPDATE: McIlroy shoots +1, missing the cut by 2 shots. Just like that, we cash in a $175 ticket! This particular play seemed too good to be true, so I laid the wood instantly.
As previously stated, if you locate a real-life bonafide edge, jump on it! And hurry up and do it before the market self-corrects itself.
Valero Open Course Conditions
The first two days of the 100th Anniversary provided us with many surprises and some generally challenging golf conditions. Each day had a few players shine, but the overwhelmingly high percentage of golfers struggled.
The -1 cut line too steep for many favorites – including, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama (withdrew due to injury) & Bryson DeChambeau.
Good news for us all is the weather. Winds are supposed to die off and premium scoring conditions will ensure.
A fistful of surprising players (21 in fact) are all within 5 strokes of the leader, Ryan Palmer (-10). Nearly all of them fighting for one last prayer at gaining the right to tee it up at the 2022 Masters tournament scheduled to commence 6 days time.
After updating my betting card, the results are not salivating. 4/9 missed cuts. However, with Matt Kuchar (+1000) tied for 2nd, I feel very good. He, believe it or not, is an astonishing -8 on Holes 14-18 through the first two rounds. I will add another ¼ unit onto the wily veteran Kuch!
Lastly, Jhonattan Vegas (+3300) is someone I’m targeting to put it ALL together and be in contention late on Sunday. He is dominating the field Tee-to-Green thus far and if it weren’t for the flatstick, he’d surely be out in front of the field. An above average putter for his career, who excels putting over Poa greens → give me Vegas for ½ unit going forward.
Usually, I’ll make more drastic moves with my in-game betting strategies. Maybe already cashing in on McIlroy’s ineptitude has got me laid back? Who knows?
Life is good. Enjoy this weekend, watch some golf, prep for Augusta and may we all wake up Monday with some fat pockets. Until next week.