2022 U.S. Open Picks & Best Bets: Outright Winner, Top 10, Top 20
OddsJam’s golf experts take you through the best bets and picks for the third major tournament of 2022, the U.S. Open taking place at The Country Club at Brookline from June 16-19.
2022 U.S. Open Picks & Best Bets
After a Billy Horschel Sunday run away two weeks ago, we were treated to yet another drama filled Sunday afternoon last week at the RBC Canadian Open.
Matt Fitzpatrick was the 36 hole leader, but then fell apart over the weekend — much to the chagrin of myself and the readers who were also holding a Fitzpatrick outright ticket.
Our other outright contender in Justin Thomas was tied for first with two holes remaining but he also choked, finishing with two bogies which allowed Rory McIlroy to ultimately prevail by two strokes and defend his title – winning his second consecutive RBC Canadian Open.
We just missed on the outright win with Thomas but the derivatives continued to deliver. Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick finished in the Top 10, while Shane Lowry, Chris Kirk, Harold Varner III and Brandon Todd finished in the Top 20, resulting in a profit of 3.9 units for the week.
This week we look to carry the winning momentum into the U.S. Open and attempt to find the outright winner in the second straight major after cashing in with Justin Thomas a month ago at the PGA Championship.
This week’s track is at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts.
It is a par-70 that measures in at 7,264 yards. This will be the first time the majority of the field has ever played at this course with the exception of a few who played here in the Ryder Cup in 1999 or in their U.S. Amateur in college.
Similar to last week, it is a tight track that is lined with treacherous rough and has the second smallest greens among championship venues, only Pebble Beach has smaller.
Due to this, players will need to be very accurate off the tee, be efficient at gaining greens in regulation, and have great around-the-green play as many players will inevitably be missing these small greens and be forced to scramble.
As is typical with U.S. Open venues, this is going to be a very challenging course — the antithesis of the birdie fests we have seen over the past few weeks.
We can expect to see a lot more bogeys than birdies this week. Every U.S. Open winner dating back to 2014 was ranked either first or second in bogeys avoided so bogey avoidance will be one of the most key metrics for our model this weekend.
Statistics to Look At
It is going to take a combination of accurate driving, solid approach shots, great around-the-green play, bogey avoidance, and bentgrass putting to contend this week.
For those reasons, the key metrics that our model is using to compile our portfolio this week are: Good Drives Gained, Fairways Gained, Strokes-Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Strokes-Gained: Around the Green, Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s 400-450, Three-Putt Avoidance and Greens in Regulation.
2022 U.S. Open Bets Outright Winner Picks, Odds
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