2022 Memorial Tournament Best Bets: Outright Winner, Top 10, Top 20
2022 Memorial Tournament Bets
We are coming off another highly profitable tournament at the Charles Schwab Challenge where Sam Burns pulled off a wild comeback on Sunday.
Burns came back from seven strokes down to win in a play-off over Scottie Scheffler and cash us a very nice 30-1 ticket on him in the process.
That was our second outright winner in a row and third in four weeks.
We now turn our attention to the Memorial, which features a loaded field and we will look to cash our third outright winner in a row.
This week features Muirfield Village Golf Club, a Jack Nicklaus design. Known as “Jack’s Place” after its aforementioned designer, Muirfield Village demands elite ball-striking — Nicklaus’s specialty.
Similar to last week it is a heavily tree-lined course and the greens are small and surrounded by bunkers. There will be an emphasis on players who hit long and straight plus those who have a reliable recovery game.
It is going to take a combination of accurate driving, solid approach shots, good around-the-green play, bunker skills and bentgrass putting to contend at Muirfield this week.
Statistics to Look At
As a result, this week we are placing a premium on players who excel at hitting fairways and greens and have success scrambling around the green.
This week the key metrics that our model is using to compile our portfolio are: Strokes-Gained: Approach, Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s 400-450, Good Drive Percentage, Greens in Regulation, Strokes Gained: Around The Green, Strokes-Gained: Par 5’s, Sand Saves, Putting 5-10 Feet, Putting 10-15 Feet.
2022 Memorial Tournament Outright Winner Picks, Odds
Xander Schauffele | +2200 at Caesars
Xander Schauffele won the Zurich Classic when he was paired with Patrick Cantlay last month and won Olympic gold last summer, but it has been over three years since he has had a solo win on Tour.
He is the No. 1 player identified by our model and he has had a lot of success here at the Memorial Tournament — going T-14, T-13 and T-11 in consecutive years.
He is second in the field in par 4 scoring average, which is significant because the last three winners here ranked first, fourth and third in that metric for the week.
He has no holes in his game and is tops in the field in around the green play and sand saves. We love his chances to contend this week.
Best Bet Alert: Schauffele finishing in the top 10 is our best bet of the week and we love his outright odds of +2200 as well.
Shane Lowry | +2500 at BetMGM
There hasn’t been a more consistent player on Tour this year without a win than Shane Lowry.
He has three top-five finishes in the last two months and four inside the top 15. His T23 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago was his first finish outside of the top 13 this whole year.
He is the best scrambler in the field, is in great form and should come in with plenty of confidence after his T6 finish last year.
We expect Lowry to be in one of the final pairings come Sunday with a great chance to get his elusive first win of the season.
Viktor Hovland | +2800 at BetMGM
If it wasn’t for his around the green play, Viktor Hovland could very easily be the No. 1 player in the world right now.
He is an elite ball striker, ranking second in this field in strokes gained on approach and third in total strokes gained ball striking. He is also third in par 4 scoring average and his elite long- and mid-iron shots suit this course perfectly.
However, he is 205 out of 205 in strokes gained around the green and it’s not even close — losing more than 15% more strokes than the next closest.
The good news is he actually gained strokes putting the last two weeks, including picking up four strokes putting in each of his last two starts.
Hovland is too talented to not break through soon and his ball striking alone should set him up for a top 20 finish — if he can avoid losing strokes around the green again he has a great chance to get his first win on U.S. soil this season.
Will Zalatoris | +2800 at FanDuel
We have seen lots of young players get their first PGA win at the Memorial and Will Zalatoris could very easily be the next one to be shaking Jack Nichlaus’s hand after his first win.
As I mentioned above, Viktor Hovland is the second-best ball striker in this field. The No. 1 rating belongs to Zalatoris.
He is No. 1 on the entire Tour in SG: Approach-the-Green and SG: Tee-to-Green, a truly elite ball striker. He is also ranked No. 5 on Tour in greens in regulation, which is second to only Jon Rahm in this field.
Zalatoris is coming off a missed cut, but I give him a mulligan for that after a very emotional PGA Championship where he came up just short of getting his first win in a playoff loss to Justin Thomas.
Two weeks ago, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler also missed a cut for the first time in seven months and afterward he said that it was a blessing in disguise and having a few days off helped refocus him. One week later, he nearly won at Colonial, losing to Sam Burns in a playoff.
I envision a similar bounce-back performance from Zalatoris this week — before his missed cut last week he had four top-six finishes in his last six starts and his elite ball striking is suited perfectly for success at Muirfield this week.
His only weakness is his putting stroke, which has looked downright ugly lately. But Zalatoris’ ball-striking is so good that he only needs to putt to the field average to contend.
Zalatoris has shown his mettle against fields just as tough as this with two runner ups in majors, so he won’t flinch against this field.
If he can avoid losing strokes putting, we love his chances to be in one of the final pairings come Sunday.
Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 at BetMGM
Hideki Matsuyama has been the most unpredictable player on Tour as of late.
One week he says he is injured and plays well, then the next he says he is healthy and plays miserably. There is inherent risk and variance backing him, but there is tremendous upside as well.
Matsuyama already has two wins this season and he has historically played well at Muirfield Village — the site of his first career win on Tour.
Nicklaus designs reward golfers who have accuracy with their long irons and that is the best part of Matsuyama’s game. He is in the top three in the field in par 5 scoring average, par 4 scoring average and strokes gained on the approach, so he is the full package this week stylistically.
Like Zalatoris, his weakness is with the putter, but his iron game is so elite that as long as he can avoid losing multiple strokes on the green, he will be in contention come Sunday.
Sungjae Im | +3700 at DraftKings
Sungjae Im was a stay-away for us last week after coming off a COVID absence, but he looked like he didn’t miss a beat — picking up right where he left off with a T15 at the Charles Schwab.
That is now four straight top-25 finishes for Im and his game is tailor-made for this course.
He is fifth in par 4 scoring average, second in greens in regulation and fifth in strokes gained around the green — the second-best scrambler in the field only behind Shane Lowry.
Bentgrass greens is also his putting surface of choice, gaining more than 15 strokes over his last 36 rounds on this surface.
The only concern with Im this week is his shaky history at Muirfield Village (two missed cuts and one 57th-place finish in three starts).
But we have seen players struggle in the past then have a breakthrough and Im’s current form makes us believe he can finally have success here.
He gained 10 strokes against the field last week from tee-to-green and if he can replicate that this week, he will have an excellent chance at shaking Jack’s hand come Sunday evening.
Patrick Reed | +6500 at DraftKings
Patrick Reed’s form for the majority of this season has been horrendous so his season-long stats are skewed. However, he has finally gotten into some solid form gaining 6 and 6.5 strokes from tee-to-green over his last two starts.
He decided to ditch his PXG driver and went back to the one he used during his heyday and it seems to have been a good decision for him.
Reed has had success at Muirfield Village in his two starts here — finishing 10th in 2020 and fifth last year — so his course history is certainly there.
Historically, the mercurial Reed has been at his best on bentgrass greens and we’ve seen him have a lot of success on that surface the past two weeks.
He is a strong player around the green (55th strokes gained) and out of the sand (15th in saves), and he can make his putts (32nd in strokes gained). Those are three of the key metrics we are prioritizing most this week.
Reed is a veteran with nine wins on Tour and his skillset and course history both set him up nicely as a great value play this week.
2022 Memorial Tournament Derivative Picks
Xander Schauffele | +200 at Caesars
Shane Lowry | +225 at Caesars
Patrick Reed | +500 at DraftKings
Cam Smith | +105 at FanDuel
Sunjae Im | +150 at FanDuel
Viktor Hovland | +110 at Caesars
Will Zalatoris | +125 at PointsBet
Hideki Matsuyama | +150 at FanDuel
Joaquin Niemann | +175 at FanDuel
Note: Due to the small field this week, the oddsmakers didn’t post any odds for top 30. Instead, we have six top-20 selections this week.
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