2022 John Deere Classic Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
After coming up just short with the outright win in the U.S. Open, we cashed our seventh outright ticket of the season last week at the Travelers Championship.
Sahith Theegala headed into the 18th hole up one stroke as the prohibitive favorite on the live odds only to completely choke with a double bogey much to the thrill of everyone on these pages holding a Xander Schauffele +1800 ticket.
After an excellent field last week, we head to the John Deere Classic with one of the most watered-down fields of the year. Due to it being a very weak field — essentially a glorified Korn Ferry type of field — we suggest going lighter on the units this week.
Course Overview
This week’s track is at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois.
It is a par-71 that measures in at 7,268 yards and similar to TPC River Highlands last week, it features narrow fairways with very penal rough.
It will be very difficult to have accurate approach shots out of this very thick rough, so driving accuracy off the tee will be paramount.
The players who hit fairways will be in great shape to pile up birdies, however, as the bentgrass greens are very large and flat.
The average winning score over the past decade is 20 under par and this week will be a low-scoring birdie fest so we will also be backing those players who excel at making birdie or better.
Statistics to Look At
It is going to take a combination of accurate driving, quality approach shots, low scoring, around-the-green play and bentgrass putting to contend this week.
For those reasons, the key metrics that our model is using to compile our portfolio this week are: fairways gained, SG: Approach, birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, SG: Par 4’s, SG: Par 5’s, Greens in Regulation and SG Putting: 5-15 feet.
2022 John Deere Classic Bets Outright Winner Picks, Odds
Admittedly these, are absurdly low odds for Adam Hadwin who was +10000 two weeks ago in the U.S. Open, but he is our model’s highest rated-player by a large margin this week so we feel like there is still value.
He is in the top 10 in all of the key metrics we are looking for this week, including fifth in strokes gained approach and third in birdies or better gained.
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Hadwin already has five top-10 finishes this season, including a tie for seventh his last time out at the U.S. Open — an event where he was the first round leader.
This course suits his game perfectly and presents an excellent opportunity for him to get his first win this year against a very marginal field.
Charles Howell III used to be one of the longest drivers on Tour, but as he has aged his driving distance has decreased; however, his driving accuracy has greatly improved. With accuracy being far more important this week than distance, he is a great course fit off the tee.
He is also third in the field in birdies gained or better, and is No. 1 in the field in greens in regulation. Howell has been in great form as well — notching a T-18 at the Memorial and a T-35 last week, which could have been far better if not for a rough Sunday.
Howell also has some great course history at TPC Deere Run with three top-20 finishes in his last three starts here and we expect him to contend again this week.
In a weak field that will require lots of birdies, Maverick McNearly is one of the best options. He is No. 1 in the field in birdie or better percentage — a player who has the ability to go very low when his putter gets hot.
His best putting surface is bentgrass greens so he should have plenty of birdies once again this week. McNealy has been hit or miss this season, but he has six top-25 finishes and his game is well suited for this course.
He is in the top 20 in all of the key metrics, including first in birdies or better and strokes gained on par 5s. With low scoring expected, as long as his putter doesn’t betray him, he should be right in contention in this weak field throughout the tournament.
Brendon Todd is another golfer in similar style to Charles Howell III who isn’t long off the tee but is very accurate. St. George’s Golf Course three weeks ago at the Canadian Open is a good course comparison and he excelled there — finishing T-13.
He missed the cut last week, which I actually view as a positive because it will help him be more rested and focused and it gets us a better number on him as well.
He ranks No. 1 in the field in fairways gained and is fourth in strokes gained on par 5s. His accurate driving and excellent putting is a recipe for success at TPC Deere Run and it’s not surprising that he finished 18th here last year. We look for another stellar week out of the ultra consistent Todd again this week in this very watered-down field.
This is a veryweak field, but it was still a little surprising to see that Martin Laird — who is No. 1 in total strokes gained — was Martin Laird.
He has been quietly playing well as of late, including a T-13 last week at the Travelers where he finished one stroke outside of the top 10.
He is the best ball striker in this field over the last 24 rounds, but his weakness is with the putter, which is why despite his excellent driving and approach stats he is still very mediocre in birdie or better percentage.
That said, in a birdie fest like this, having the best ball striker in the field at +7000 odds is too good to pass up. As long as he can avoid losing strokes against the field this week, he should be right in contention and we also love the value on histop 20 at a very generous +300 odds as well.
It is very rare for us to have someone with this high of odds in our outright portfolio, but it is warranted this week at TPC Deere Run where we have seen winners in the 100-1 or beyond range in two of the last three years.
Hubbard was surprisingly high on our model and his game is a good fit for a birdie fest — ranking in the top 10 in the field in strokes gained approach, greens in regulation and birdies gained or better. He is also No. 1 in the field in bogey avoidance, which is equally as important in a birdie fest.
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Martin Laird’s game will play well this week at the John Deere Classic. He is top 30 on the Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green and his accuracy off the tee will give him looks at hitting Greens-in-Regulation which will lead to birdies, the name of the game this week. He is a bit of a long shot but with the field shaping up the way it is, he should be contending come Sunday.
After the heartbreaking finish last week, Theegala will try again for his first win on the PGA Tour. He has been close twice already and has been unable to finish, faltering in the last two holes each time. The course this week does not suit his game extremely well but he is playing well enough for the top 10 finish.
Boo Weekley is not the flashiest player in this field and is likely a name you have not heard called for some time, however, with a weakened field Weekley should have a solid chance of finishing in the top 20. He is not the longest off the tee but is extremely accurate and has a great short game, both of which will help this week. While he is likely not contending, this seems like an easy pick for a top-20 finish.
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