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2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets: Outright Winner, Top 10, Top 20

<p>AP Photos</p>

AP Photos

2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets

We are coming off another highly profitable tournament at the PGA Championship. It wasn’t looking too promising on Sunday morning but then just about everything broke our way with Justin Thomas not only cashing our best bet finishing in the top 10, but he went on to win the tournament in dramatic fashion while cashing a very nice 18-1 ticket for us in the process (our second outright winner in three weeks).

The Texas Tour has been very kind to our bankrolls and this is the last stop this week at the famed Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth so we will look to stay hot and cash our sixth outright of the season.

Course Overview

For the second week in a row, the players will be playing on a Perry Maxwell course. Colonial Country Club has a lot of similarities to Southern Hills where they played last week — Jordan Spieth even went as far to call Southern Hills “Colonial on steroids”. Both have narrow fairways and small greens, so the players will once again need accuracy off the tee and approaching the greens. 

Colonial is more than 300 yards shorter than Southern Hills which ranks it among the shortest courses by PGA Tour standards. That said, it’s still a very challenging course with the fourth most narrow fairways on Tour which are lined with massive pecan trees, so driving accuracy will be paramount. 

Like last week, the first shot will matter more than the approach. The rough is very similar to Southern Hills where it’s not that high, but the ball sits down into it which makes the approach shot very unpredictable into its very small greens — the seventh smallest on Tour.

This is the epitome of a ‘ball strikers course’. The players who are going to score well are the ones who hit it long and straight, so our number one metric this week is going to be Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. Those who place their drives in the right part of the fairway will be able to attack the greens and pins.

The greens are small, so hitting greens will be very important as well. Of the last 10 champions, eight of them ranked in the Top 10 in greens in regulation coming into the event including last year’s champion Jason Kokrak who was second in that metric. Players will inevitably be missing the green this week, so we will also be targeting those who have the ability to get up and down when they miss the green. 

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Statistics to Look At

Our strategy will be the same as last week – selecting players who excel at hitting fairways and greens and have success scrambling around the green.

This week the key metrics that our model is using to compile our portfolio are: SG: Off-The-Tee, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Greens, Greens in Regulation and  Hit Fairway Percentage.

Click Here to Read our Full Betting Preview of the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge

2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Winner Picks, Odds

Jordan Spieth | +1200 at DraftKings

Spieth was an extremely popular pick last week at the PGA Championship, and while we faded him then, we absolutely love him this week. 

Other than Augusta National, Colonial is his favorite course where he has played his best including six top-10 finishes including a solo second last year and the outright win in 2016. 

His form has been excellent this season with a win and three top-5 finishes. I’ll give him a mulligan for last week where he struggled because he is so in his own head to complete the career grand slam that he hasn’t played well at PGA Championships even when the course is a perfect fit for his game like last week.

Spieth ranks 8th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 23rd in greens in regulation and is in the top-20 in the field for SG: Approach and SG: Off-the-Tee. Amazingly, has only finished outside the top 10 twice in his career at Colonial, and we expect him to be in one of the final pairings once again come Sunday.

Viktor Hovland | +2200 at PointsBet

If it wasn’t for his around the green play, Viktor Hovland could very easily be the number one player in the world right now. He is an elite ball striker, ranking second in this field in strokes gained on approach and third in total strokes gained ball striking. However he is 205 out of 205 in strokes gained around the green and it’s not even close — losing more than 15% more strokes than the next closest. The good news is he actually gained strokes last week at Colonial around the green and Jason Kokrak lost over two strokes around-the-green last year in his victory, so it’s not unprecedented. Hovland is too talented to not break through and his ball striking alone will set him up for a top 20 finish — if he can avoid losing strokes around the green again he has a great chance to get his first win on US soil this season.

Will Zalatoris | +2800 at FanDuel

As aforementioned, Viktor Hovland is the second best ball striker in this field, the number one rating belongs to Will Zalatoris. He is number one on the entire Tour in SG: Approach-the-Green and SG: Tee-to-Green, a truly elite ball striker. He is also ranked number 5 on Tour in greens in regulation which is also the top in this field. As we saw last week, his game is tailor made to excel at a Perry Marshall course, coming up just short in his second place finish to Justin Thomas in the playoff. 

Amazingly, that was his second time being a runner up in a major at only 25 years old. Zalatoris has been a top 10 machine and the only question mark will be if he is too burned out after losing the playoff to Thomas but I don’t see that being an issue. He is young and motivated, still seeking his first win on Tour, and in his post-round interview Sunday he said he is very motivated to win – and win soon.

Similar to Justin Thomas last week, Zalatoris ranks number one in three of our key metrics this week and this Texas native is the models favorite to win.

Best Bet Alert: Zalatrois to finish in the top 10 +275 is our best bet of the week, and we love his very generous odds at +2800 at Fanduel as well.

Sam Burns | +3000 at DraftKings

Burns started the season red hot with two early wins and after a few recent disappointing finishes he has cooled off a little which provides great value on this number. Prior to the PGA Championship he missed two cuts, but it seems like he may have found something last week after a very solid top-20 finish. As Jordan Spieth implied, Colonial is “Southern Hills Lite” so we are looking to back the same players who had success last week and Burns certainly fits.

He ranks in the top-10 in the field in SG: Approach and greens in regulation, two of the most important metrics needed to score well this week. Burns is a three time Tour winner so he knows how to win and he has some nice momentum off a strong finish at the PGA Championship. He has gained strokes off the tee, on the approach, and with his putter in each of his last four rounds and we’ll be surprised if he isn’t in contention some Sunday.

Max Homa | +3300 at Bet365

Admittedly these odds are high for Homa after his win two weeks ago, but the numbers do back it up. Over his last 55 rounds, he has gained 59 strokes combined off-the-tee and on the approach which ranks him as the fifth best ball-striker in the field during that stretch. His greens in regulation (no. 74) is slightly concerning, but he also has the scrambling game to save par if that continues to be an issue.

He has been a Top 20 machine, with nine top-20 finishes this season including two wins. He is just on fire right now and will continue to be in our derivative and outright portfolios until proven otherwise.

Daniel Berger | +3500 at DraftKings

Over his last 50 rounds, Daniel Berger has been the best iron player in the world. Better than Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas or Will Zalatoris. 

He is fourth in this field in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Above all, Colonial is a perfect fit for his game with its short par 4s and small greens. It was no fluke that he won here in 2020, the first event out of the COVID break in the strongest field Colonial ever had.

He missed the cut last week at the PGA Championship but that was due to poor putting, his ball striking and tee-to-green play was still elite. He has been dealing with some injuries that forced him to withdraw from some tournaments in the beginning of the year, and between that and his missed cut last week, we are getting amazing value on the best iron player in this field. It will come as no shock to us if Berger is a two time Colonial champion come Sunday afternoon. 

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2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Derivative Picks

Top 10 Picks

As much as we would have loved to have gone back to Justin Thomas again this week, we just can’t justify his outright number. 

The odds are stacked against players winning back-to-back tournaments, let alone winning back to back tournaments following a PGA Championship victory. Only four players have ever done that and it has only happened twice since 2000 — Tiger Woods both times.

We love JT and his game fits this course well, but he is no peak Tiger Woods. We will however, back him to finish in the Top 10, about as good of a bet as you can make in the PGA as he has eight top 10 finishes in his last 11 events.

Top 20 Picks

Top 30 Picks

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