2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bets: Outright Winner Picks, Top 10, Top 20

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OddsJam StaffMay 13, 2022, 04:10 PM

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Preview

Last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, we had a tournament for the ages.

Max Homa not only cashed our best bet by finishing in the top 20, but he won the tournament cashing a very nice 41-1 outright ticket in the process.

It was a sweat-free Sunday as we had outrights on Homa, Keegan Bradley and Cameron Young who finished first, second and third, respectively.

All in all, it was a +21 unit tournament and we will look to have continued success this week at the AT&T Byron Nelson.

Click Here to Read OddsJam’s 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Course and Tournament Preview

TPC Craig Ranch is a longer course that features very wide fairways and large greens so the bombers will be at an advantage again this week.

It is being played in the heat of Texas, so the fairways will be dry and the ball will really run. Last year, the winning score was -25.

This is a course that is very birdiable, with all of the par 5s being very reachable. We expect it will be birdie fest again, which means we are looking for players who have the propensity to put up low scores and have success with ball striking, specifically on the approach.

This week the key metrics that our model is using to compile our portfolio are: Strokes-Gained: Approach, Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes-Gained: Par 4s, Strokes-Gained: Par 5s and Birdie Average.

Outright Winner Picks, Odds

Justin Thomas | +1200 at FanDuel

Some weeks there is value with the long shots (like last week with Max Homa at +4000) and other weeks it’s better to go with the chalk (like the Mexican Open with Jon Rahm at a paltry +400).

This week, I like the winner to come from the top of the odds board and Justin Thomas is my favorite play of the week.

JT ranks in the top 3 in every key metric we are looking for this week, including No. 1 in the field in birdie average, which is probably the most important of all since the winner is going to have to shoot in the low -20s.

Thomas is one of the best players on Tour, but it’s been over a year since he has won — far too long for a player of his caliber — so he is definitely due. 

He is the best approach player in the field and he has a history of success at courses like this where it’s a birdie-fest, winning the Sony Open in 2017 shooting a -27, including a course-record 59.

Don’t be surprised if history repeats itself this week.

Best Bet Alert: JT to finish in the top 20 is my best bet of the week, and I love his outright odds at +1400.

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Will Zalatoris | +2000 at FanDuel

Similar to Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris is in the top 5 in the field in every metric we are looking at this week, including No. 1 in Strokes-Gained: Approach, Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green.

His form has been great, coming in off three straight top-10 finishes, and he has plenty of experience playing in the Lone Star State being a Texas native.

My only concern with Zalatoris is his putting has been abysmal, losing an average of almost five strokes putting over his last 20 rounds when putting on bentgrass greens, including losing more than four strokes here last year.

If he can avoid losing strokes to the field this week, I love him to be right in contention come Sunday.

Dustin Johnson | +2200 at BetRivers

There is some concern with Dustin Johnson that he is just using this week as a tuneup for next week at the PGA Championship. This is something he has done in the past heading into majors, but by all accounts he is focused after getting married last week.

If he comes in focused, he absolutely has the skill set to contend this week. His length and accuracy off the tee will put him in prime position to make a ton of birdies this week and he is excellent putting on bentgrass greens.

His form is solid as well, having a ninth-place finish at the Players and a 12th-place finish at the Masters. I expect him to be in one of the final groupings come Sunday. 

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Joaquin Niemann | +3500 at DraftKings

Joaquin Niemann has been a familiar face in our outright and derivative portfolio this year and will continue to be as long as he keeps his level of play up.

He has been in great form, notching his first career victory earlier in the season in a wire-to-wire win at the Genesis and most recently had a T-12 at the RBC Heritage.

He is deceptively long off the tee and is one of the best approach players in this field. He has shown the ability to go low and win a birdie fest like he did at the Genesis, winning with a -19.

His game sets up well for the TPC Craig Ranch, ranking ninth in Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green. I expect another strong showing from Niemann.

Cameron Champ | +6500 at FanDuel

Cameron Champ is one of the best values on the board this week. He is a two-time PGA Tour winner who has been in great form this season, coming off a T-10 at the Masters.

He was in contention late on Sunday at the Mexico Open two weeks ago until he had a late triple bogey that cost him a chance at his third win.

He is No. 1 in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and, as long as he can gain a few strokes putting, we love his chances to finish in the top 20 or beyond.

Sepp Straka | +8000 at DraftKings

We were on Sepp Straka last week and he missed the cut, which really inflated his odds this week. We will go right back to the well at even better odds.

Straka has been as hot as any player on Tour, with an outright win at the Honda Classic a few months ago. He has since contended at the Players Championship with a T-9 and was one stroke away from joining Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay in the playoff at the RBC Heritage.

He has been in excellent form since the onset of the Florida swing and he has proven he has what it takes to be in contention on Sundays. He isn’t the longest player, but his approach and putting on bentgrass will allow him to score plenty of bogies.

This price at +8000 is far too high.

Top 10 Picks

Justin Thomas | +155 at BetRivers

Dustin Johnson | +275 at BetRivers

Will Zalatoris | +250 at FanDuel

Top 20 Picks

Justin Thomas | -130 at FanDuel

Will Zalatoris | +125 at BetRivers

Joaquin Niemann | +175 at BetRivers

Sepp Straka | +320 at FanDuel

Top 30 Picks

Cameron Champ | +130 at FanDuel

Sepp Straka | +200 at FanDuel

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds

GolferOdds
Scottie Scheffler+1000
Justin Thomas+1200
Sam Burns+2000
Dustin Johnson+2200
Jordan Spieth+2200
Will Zalatoris+2200
Xander Schauffele+2200
Hideki Matsuyama+2500
Joaquin Niemann+3300
Talor Gooch+4000
Jhonattan Vegas+4000
Aaron Wise+5000
Adam Hadwin+5000
Cameron Champ+5000
Davis Riley+5000
Jason Day+5000
Jason Kokrak+5000
Maverick McNealy+5000
Tommy Fleetwood+5000
Seamus Power+5000
Alex Noren+6600
Lanto Griffin+6600
Mito Pereira+6600
Patton Kizzire+6600
Adam Scott+6600
Bubba Watson+6600
Marc Leishman+6600
Sebastian Munoz+6600
Sepp Straka+6600
Si Woo Kim+6600
K.H. Lee+8000
Matt Kuchar+8000
Matthew Wolff+8000
Keith Mitchell+8000
Kevin Kisner+8000
Luke List+8000
Matthew NeSmith+8000
Patrick Rodgers+8000
C.T. Pan+10000
Charles Howell III+10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+10000
David Lipsky+10000
J.J. Spaun+10000
Kurt Kitayama+10000
Mackenzie Hughes+10000
Scott Stallings+10000
Tom Hoge+10000
Aaron Rai+12500
Brandon Wu+12500
Brendon Todd+12500
Dylan Frittelli+12500
Ian Poulter+12500
Joohyung Kim+12500
Nick Taylor+12500
Ryan Palmer+12500
Sahith Theegala+12500
Stephan Jaeger+12500
Branden Grace+15000
Carlos Ortiz+15000
Chez Reavie+15000
Danny Willett+15000
Emiliano Grillo+15000
Lee Westwood+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Scott Piercy+15000
Wyndham Clark+15000
Greyson Sigg+15000
James Hahn+15000
Nate Lashley+15000
Austin Smotherman+20000
Brian Stuard+20000
Doc Redman+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Martin Laird+20000
Pat Perez+20000
Tyler Duncan+20000
Vince Whaley+20000
Ryan Armour+20000
Mark Hubbard+20000
Adam Schenk+25000
Adam Svensson+25000
Andrew Novak+25000
Beau Hossler+25000
Brandt Snedeker+25000
Brice Garnett+25000
Charl Schwartzel+25000
Francesco Molinari+25000
Henrik Stenson+25000
Hudson Swafford+25000
John Huh+25000
Joseph Bramlett+25000
Justin Lower+25000
Kramer Hickok+25000
Luke Donald+25000
Peter Malnati+25000
Robert Streb+25000
Rory Sabbatini+25000
Taylor Moore+25000
Chase Seiffert+25000
Satoshi Kodaira+25000
Andrew Putnam+30000
Charley Hoffman+30000
Harry Higgs+30000
Lee Hodges+30000
Matt Wallace+30000
Michael Thompson+30000
Peter Uihlein+30000
Sam Ryder+30000
Trey Mullinax+30000
Shaun Norris+30000
Ben Kohles+35000
Brandon Hagy+35000
Callum Tarren+35000
Mac Meissner+35000
Michael Gligic+35000
Roger Sloan+35000
Scott Gutschewski+35000
Wesley Bryan+35000
Cameron Percy+40000
Curtis Thompson+40000
Dylan Wu+40000
Hayden Buckley+40000
Kelly Kraft+40000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+40000
Paul Barjon+40000
Richy Werenski+40000
Ryan Brehm+40000
Vaughn Taylor+40000
Bill Haas+50000
Chesson Hadley+50000
David Skinns+50000
Henrik Norlander+50000
James Hart du Preez+50000
Jared Wolfe+50000
Jason Dufner+50000
Kevin Tway+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Patrick Flavin+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
Seung-Yul Noh+50000
Sung Kang+50000
Austin Cook+75000
Brett Drewitt+75000
Jim Herman+75000
Joshua Creel+75000
Kyle Wilshire+75000
Cooper Dossey+100000
J.J. Killeen+100000
John Murphy+100000
Jonas Blixt+100000
Justin Leonard+100000
Andrew Loupe+100000
Conrad Shindler+100000
Jim Knous+100000
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